The 35-minute meeting at the Great Hall of the People had been expected and was seen as key to the success of the trip, but neither side confirmed it would happen until a State Department official announced it just an hour beforehand.

In footage of the meeting released by state broadcaster CCTV, Xi is heard to say “The two sides have agreed to follow through on the common understandings President Biden and I have reached in Bali.”

In earlier meetings between Blinken and senior Chinese officials, the two sides expressed willingness to talk but showed little inclination to bend from hardened positions on disagreements ranging from trade, to Taiwan, to human rights conditions in China and Hong Kong, to Chinese military assertiveness in the South China Sea, to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Xi said that they had made progress and reached agreements on “some specific issues” without elaborating. “This is very good,” Xi said.

“I hope that through this visit, Mr. Secretary, you will make more positive contributions to stabilizing China-US relation,” Xi added.

Despite Blinken’s presence in China, he and other U.S. officials had played down the prospects for any significant breakthroughs on the most vexing issues facing the planet’s two largest economies.

Instead, these officials have emphasized the importance of the two countries establishing and maintaining better lines of communication.

Blinken is the highest-level U.S. official to visit China since President Joe Biden took office, and the first secretary of state to make the trip in five years. His visit is expected to usher in a new round of visits by senior U.S. and Chinese officials, possibly including a meeting between Xi and Biden in the coming months.

Blinken met earlier Monday with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi for about three hours, according to a U.S. official.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote in a statement that Blinken’s visit “coincides with a critical juncture in China-U.S. relations, and it is necessary to make a choice between dialogue or confrontation, cooperation or conflict,” and blamed the “U.S. side’s erroneous perception of China, leading to incorrect policies towards China” for the current “low point” in relations.

It said the U.S. had a responsibility to halt “the spiraling decline of China-U.S. relations to push it back to a healthy and stable track” and that Wang had “demanded that the U.S. stop hyping up the ‘China threat theory’, lift illegal unilateral sanctions against China, abandon suppression of China’s technological development, and refrain from arbitrary interference in China’s internal affairs.”

The State Department said Blinken “underscored the importance of responsibly managing the competition between the United States and the PRC through open channels of communication to ensure competition does not veer into conflict.”

In the first round of talks on Sunday, Blinken met for nearly six hours with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang after which both countries said they had agreed to continue high-level discussions. However, there was no sign that any of the most fractious issues between them were closer to resolution.

Both the U.S. and China said Qin had accepted an invitation from Blinken to visit Washington but Beijing made clear that “the China-U.S. relationship is at the lowest point since its establishment.” That sentiment is widely shared by U.S. officials.

Blinken’s visit comes after his initial plans to travel to China were postponed in February after the shootdown of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the U.S.

A snub by the Chinese leader would have been a major setback to the effort to restore and maintain communications at senior levels.

Biden and Xi had made commitments to improve communications“precisely so that we can make sure we are communicating as clearly as possible to avoid possible misunderstandings and miscommunications,” Blinken said before leaving for Beijing.

And Biden said over the weekend that he hoped to be able to meet with Xi in the coming months to take up the plethora of differences that divide them.

In his meetings on Sunday, Blinken also pressed the Chinese to release detained American citizens and to take steps to curb the production and export of fentanyl precursors that are fueling the opioid crisis in the United States.

Xi offered a hint of a possible willingness to reduce tensions on Friday, saying in a meeting with Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates that the United States and China can cooperate to “benefit our two countries.”

Since the cancellation of Blinken’s trip in February, there have been some high-level engagements. CIA chief William Burns traveled to China in May, while China’s commerce minister traveled to the U.S. And Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Wang Yi in Vienna in May.

But those have been punctuated by bursts of angry rhetoric from both countries over the Taiwan Strait, their broader intentions in the Indo-Pacific, China’s refusal to condemn Russia for its war against Ukraine, and U.S. allegations from Washington that Beijing is attempting to boost its worldwide surveillance capabilities, including in Cuba.

And, earlier this month, China’s defense minister rebuffed a request from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for a meeting on the sidelines of a security symposium in Singapore, a sign of continuing discontent.

The convoy of clearly marked embassy vehicles was attacked on Monday, and preliminary reports link the assailants to the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group battling Sudan’s military, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters. Everyone in the convoy was safe, Blinken said.

The Sudanese military said the attack took place in Sudan’s restive Darfur region.

The convoy attack, along with earlier assaults on aid workers and the EU envoy’s residence in the capital of Khartoum, signaled further descent into chaos since the battle by two rival generals for control of Africa’s third-largest country erupted over the weekend.

More than 185 people have been killed and more than 1,800 wounded, according to U.N. figures. The death toll could be much higher because there are many bodies in the streets in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, especially around the city center, that no one can reach because of the clashes.

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The two sides have been using tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons in densely populated areas. Late Monday, fighter jets swooped overhead and anti-aircraft fire lit up the skies as darkness fell. Fighting resumed early Tuesday around each side’s main bases and at strategic government buildings — all of which are in residential areas.

The turmoil comes just days before Sudanese were to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the holiday marking the end of Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting.

Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC analyzed Tuesday by The Associated Press showed the extent of the destruction from days of fighting. At Khartoum International Airport, which also has a military side, the AP counted some 20 damaged aircraft in an image taken early Monday afternoon. Some had been completely destroyed, with one still belching smoke. At the El Obeid and Merowe air bases, north and south of Khartoum, several fighter jets were among the destroyed aircraft.

Top diplomats have urged the two rival generals — armed forces chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and RSF leader Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo — to halt fighting, so far to no avail.

The Sudanese military said Tuesday that more troops would join the battle and that it would “widen the scope of its operations” against the RSF.

The State Department said late Monday that Blinken spoke by phone separately with the two generals.

“I made very clear (in my calls) that any attacks or threats or dangers posed to our diplomats were totally unacceptable,” Blinken told reporters at the Group of Seven wealthy nations meeting in Japan on Tuesday,

He appealed for an immediate 24-hour cease-fire, as a foundation for a longer truce and a return to negotiations. “Indiscriminate military operations have resulted in significant deaths and injuries, recklessly endangering civilians, diplomats, including U.S. personnel, and humanitarian personnel,” he said.

Burhan and Dagalo, former allies who jointly orchestrated an October 2021 coup, have dug in, demanding the other’s surrender. The violence has raised the specter of civil war just as Sudanese were trying to revive the drive for a democratic, civilian government after decades of military rule.

The Sudanese military blamed the RSF, which grew out of the notorious Janjaweed militias in Sudan’s Darfur region, for the attack on the U.S. convoy and an earlier assault on the home of the EU envoy in Khartoum. The military said the convoy was attacked in al-Fasher, the capital city of North Darfur province.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell tweeted Monday that the EU ambassador to Sudan “was assaulted in his own residency,” without providing further details.

The RSF denied involvement in the attack on the ambassador’s home, instead blaming the military. However, a Western diplomat in Cairo said the residence was ransacked by armed men in RSF uniforms. No one was hurt but the armed men stole several items, said the diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to talk to media.

Under international pressure, Burhan and Dagalo had recently agreed to a framework agreement with political parties and pro-democracy groups, but the signing was repeatedly delayed as tensions rose over the integration of the RSF into the armed forces and the future chain of command.

Both generals have a long history of human rights abuses and their forces have cracked down on pro-democracy activists.

Only four years ago, Sudan inspired hope after a popular uprising helped depose long-time autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir.

But the turmoil since, especially the 2021 coup, has frustrated the democracy drive and wrecked the economy. A third of the population — around 16 million people — now depends on humanitarian assistance in the resource-rich nation.

Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Matthew Lee in Karuizawa, Japan, contributed to this report.

Blinken and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh pledged to boost relations to new levels as they met just two weeks after the 50th anniversary of the U.S. troop withdrawal that marked the end of America’s direct military involvement in Vietnam.

And it came as Blinken broke ground on a sprawling new $1.2 billion U.S. embassy compound in the Vietnamese capital, a project the Biden administration hopes will demonstrate its commitment to further improving ties less than 30 years after diplomatic relations were restored in 1995.

Despite concerns over Vietnam’s human rights record, Washington sees Hanoi as a key component of its strategy for the region and has sought to leverage Vietnam’s traditional rivalry with its much larger neighbor China to expand U.S. influence in the region.

“We think this is an auspicious time to elevate our existing partnership,” Blinken told reporters after meetings with Chinh, Vietnam’s foreign minister and Communist Party chief.

“This has been a very comprehensive and effective relationship and going forward we will continue to deepen relations,” Chinh said. “We highly appreciate the role and responsibility of the U.S. towards the Asia Pacific, or, in a larger scheme, the Indo-Pacific.”

He added that Vietnam’s communist government is keen to “further elevate our bilateral ties to a new height.”

Along with a number of China’s smaller neighbors, Vietnam has maritime and territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea. The U.S. has responded by offering diplomatic support and bolstering military cooperation with the Philippines and the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as a renegade province.

Blinken noted that the U.S. is currently finalizing the transfer to Vietnam of a third Coast Guard cutter, which will complement existing maritime security cooperation that has seen Washington give Hanoi 24 patrol boats since 2016 along with other equipment and training.

“All of these elements bolster Vietnamese capacity to contribute to maritime peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he said.

Just last month, China threatened “serious consequences” after the U.S. Navy sailed a destroyer around the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea for the second day in a row, in a move Beijing claimed was a violation of its sovereignty and security. The Paracels are occupied by China but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

U.S. officials are reluctant to describe any visit to Asia in terms of China, preferring instead to discuss the importance of improving bilateral ties. But they frequently speak to broader concerns in the region that are clearly directed at China.

“We focused on how our countries can advance a free and open Indo-Pacific; one that is at peace and grounded in respect the rules-based international order,” Blinken said.

And five decades after the Nixon administration pulled U.S. combat forces out of Vietnam on March 29, 1973, Blinken said the U.S. is seeking a more strategic orientation with the country.

Blinken’s visit comes as the administration grapples with its own record of troop withdrawals and is facing congressional criticism and demands to explain the chaotic U.S. departure from Afghanistan two years ago.

Some have likened that to the Vietnam experience, especially as it relates to the fate of Afghans who supported the 20-year military mission but were left behind when the Biden administration pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021.

In the call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Blinken conveyed “grave concern” over the Kremlin’s detention of journalist Evan Gershkovich on espionage allegations, according to a State Department summary of the call. Blinken called for his immediate release.

Blinken also sought the immediate release of Whelan, whom the statement said was wrongfully detained.

Whelan, a Michigan corporate security executive, has been imprisoned in Russia since December 2018 on espionage charges that his family and the U.S. government have said are baseless. He is serving a 16-year sentence.

Blinken and Lavrov also discussed “the importance of creating an environment that permits diplomatic missions to carry out their work,” according to the State Department.

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The FSB, Russia’s top security agency and successor to the KGB, said Gershkovich was collecting information on an enterprise of the military-industrial complex. Russian authorities detained him last week, the first time a U.S. correspondent has been held on spying accusations since the Cold War.

The Journal has adamantly denied the allegations and demanded his release. U.S. officials have also called on Russia to let him go, with President Joe Biden telling reporters on Friday that his message to the country was “Let him go.”

More than 30 news organizations and press freedom advocates have written the Russian ambassador in the United States to express concern Russia is sending the message that reporting inside the country is criminalized.

And on Saturday night, basketball star Brittney Griner, who was detained for 10 months by Russian authorities before being released in a prisoner swap for convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, issued a statement with her wife, Cherelle, calling for the release of the 31-year-old Gershkovich.

“Every American who is taken is ours to fight for and every American returned is a win for us all,” the couple said in a statement posted on Instagram.

China’s senior foreign minister offered “no apology” in his meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken for the spy balloon that floated over the U.S., Blinken said in an interview Saturday on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”

“There was no apology,” Blinken said of his conversation with Wang Yi, director of the People’s Republic of China CCP Central Foreign Affairs office. “But what I can also tell you is this was an opportunity to speak very clearly and very directly about the fact that China sent a surveillance balloon over our territory, violating our sovereignty, violating international law.”

“And I told him quite simply that that was unacceptable and can never happen again,” Blinken said.

Blinken met with Wang on Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany prior to the interview.

Diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China have increased since the U.S. shot down what it says was a spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina. China has insisted the balloon was not intended for surveillance.

Read the full story on NBCNews.com here.

Aside from the government response, fuzzy videos dotted social media as people with binoculars and telephoto lenses tried to find the “spy balloon” in the sky as it headed southeastward over Kansas and Missouri at 60,000 feet.

It was spotted earlier over Montana, which is home to one of America’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base, defense officials said.

Later Friday, the Pentagon acknowledged reports of a second balloon flying over Latin America. “We now assess it is another Chinese surveillance balloon,” Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement, declining to offer further information such as where it was spotted.

The U.S. actually had been tracking the initial balloon since at least Tuesday, when President Joe Biden was first briefed, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. According to three U.S. officials, Biden was initially inclined to order the surveillance balloon to be blown out of the sky, and a senior defense official said the U.S. had prepared fighter jets, including F-22s, to shoot it down if ordered.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, strongly advised Biden against shooting down the balloon, warning that its size — as big as three school buses — and considerable weight could create a debris field large enough to endanger Americans on the ground. The Pentagon also assessed that after unspecified U.S. measures, the possibility of the balloon uncovering important information was not great.

It was not the first time Chinese surveillance balloons have been tracked over U.S. territory, including at least once during former President Donald Trump’s administration, officials said.

Blinken’s trip cancellation came despite China’s claim that the balloon was merely a weather research “airship” that had blown off course. The Pentagon rejected that out of hand — as well as China’s contention that the balloon was not being used for surveillance and had only limited navigational ability.

Blinken, who had been due to depart Washington for Beijing late Friday, said he had told senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in a phone call that sending the balloon over the U.S. was “an irresponsible act and that (China’s) decision to take this action on the eve of my visit is detrimental to the substantive discussions that we were prepared to have.”

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Saturday morning: “In actuality, the U.S. and China have never announced any visit. The U.S. making any such announcement is their own business, and we respect that.”

According to Beijing, Wang said China “has always strictly followed international law, we do not accept any groundless speculation and hype. Faced with unexpected situations, both parties need to keep calm, communicate in a timely manner, avoid misjudgments and manage differences.”

After passing the sensitive military sites in Montana, the balloon was moving southeastward over the heartland of the central United States during the day and was expected to remain in U.S. airspace for several days, officials said.

The development dealt a new blow to already strained U.S.-Chinese relations that have been in a downward spiral for years over numerous issues. Still, U.S. officials maintained that diplomatic channels remain open and Blinken said he remained willing to travel to China “when conditions allow.”

“We continue to believe that having open lines of communication is important,” he said.

Biden declined to comment on the matter when questioned at an economic event. Two likely 2024 reelection challengers, Trump, and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, said the U.S. should immediately shoot down the balloon.

Several Republican congressmen said the same, and a number blasted the administration for “allowing” the balloon intrusion.

“The idea that Communist China has a spy balloon headed towards Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri right now — the home of the Stealth Bomber — is absolutely unbelievable,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo. “No American should accept this. I don’t.”

Jean-Pierre did not shed light on why the administration waited until Thursday to make its concerns public.

Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, refused to say Friday whether there was any new consideration of shooting the balloon down. He said it currently was posing no threat.

Ryder said it was maneuverable, not just at the mercy of the wind, and had changed course.

Still, weather experts said China’s claim that the balloon had gone off course was not unfeasible. China’s account of wind patterns known as the Westerlies carrying a balloon to the western United States was “absolutely possible — not possible, likely,” said Dan Jaffe, a professor of atmospheric chemistry at the University of Washington.

As for Blinken’s trip, Jean-Pierre said a diplomatic visit to China was not appropriate at such a time. She said that “the presence of this balloon in our airspace … is a clear violation of our sovereignty as well as international law and it is unacceptable this occurred.”

A State Department official said Blinken and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had both protested to the top official at the Chinese Embassy on Wednesday, a day before the Pentagon announced the discovery of the balloon.

Blinken’s long-anticipated meetings with senior Chinese officials had been seen in both countries as a possible way to find some areas of common ground at a time of major disagreements over Taiwan, human rights, China’s claims in the South China Sea, North Korea, Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade policy and climate change.

Although the trip, which was agreed to in November by Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Indonesia, had not been formally announced, officials in both Beijing and Washington had spoken in recent days about Blinken’s imminent arrival for meetings on Sunday and Monday.

China, which angrily denounces surveillance attempts by the U.S. and others over areas it considers to be its territory and once forced down an American spy plane and held its crew captive on Hainan Island, was relatively conciliatory in its response to the U.S. complaints.

In a statement that approached an apology, the Chinese foreign ministry said the balloon was a civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research. It said said the airship had limited “self-steering” capabilities and had “deviated far from its planned course” because of winds.

“The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into U.S. airspace due to force majeure,” the statement said, citing a legal term used to refer to events beyond one’s control.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced he had designated the Wagner Group as an “entity of particular concern” for its activities in the Central African Republic. Also on the list are Afghanistan’s Taliban, Nigeria’s Boko Haram, Somalia’s al-Shabab and two factions of the Islamic State group.

“Our announcement of these designations is in keeping with our values and interests to protect national security and to advance human rights around the globe,” Blinken said. “Countries that effectively safeguard this and other human rights are more peaceful, stable, prosperous and more reliable partners of the United States than those that do not.”

The Wagner Group is run by a confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and its mercenaries are accused by Western countries and UN experts of numerous human rights abuses throughout Africa, including in the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali.

Friday’s designation does not immediately carry U.S. sanctions but opens up those targeted to potential penalties for violations of religious freedom. The Wagner Group and the other “entities of particular concern” are already subject to an array of U.S. sanctions.

In addition to his designation of the Wagner Group and the others, Blinken identified China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan as “countries of particular concern” for religious freedom violations.

All of those countries, which Blinken said have “engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom,” have been on the list previously.

Blinken also put Algeria, the Central African Republic, Comoros and Vietnam on a “special watch list” for religious freedom violations, meaning they could eventually be hit by U.S. sanctions unless their records in the area improve.

Speaking alongside his Qatari counterpart at a news conference, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was “always concerning … when we see any restrictions on freedom of expression.”

“It’s especially so when the expression is for diversity and for inclusion,” Blinken said at Doha’s Diplomatic Club. “And in my judgment, at least no one on a football pitch should be forced to choose between supporting these values and playing for their team.”

Just hours before the first players with the armbands in support of the “One Love” campaign were to take the field on Monday, soccer’s governing body warned they would immediately be shown yellow cards — two of which lead to a player’s expulsion from that game and also the next.

No player wore the “One Love” armbands Monday though seven European teams had said they planned to wear them ahead of the tournament.

England’s Harry Kane wore a FIFA-approved “No Discrimination” armband that was offered as a compromise in the match with Iran. FIFA has tried to counter the Europeans’ campaign with its own armbands featuring more generic slogans backed by some United Nations agencies.

Asked to respond to Blinken’s comments, FIFA referred to an earlier statement about allowing the “No Discrimination” armbands at the tournament, as part of a compromise it tried to strike with soccer federations.

Blinken arrived in Qatar on Monday, where he visited a youth soccer program tied to the World Cup. He later watched the U.S. tie with Wales on Monday night.

While openly critical of FIFA, Blinken struck a more measured tone with Qatar. This energy-rich Mideast nation has been criticized ahead of the tournament over its treatment of migrant laborers and criminalizing gay and lesbian sex.

“We know that without workers, including many migrant workers, this World Cup simply would not have been possible,” Blinken said. “Qatar has made meaningful strides in recent years to its labor laws to expand worker rights.”

However, he made a point to add: “Real work remains on these issues, and the United States will continue to work with Qatar on strengthening labor rights and human rights more broadly long after the World Cup is over.”

Blinken spoke alongside Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the news conference. Asked by a Qatar-based journalist about the “media attacks” on his country, Sheikh Mohammed dismissed them.

“As for the reforms the state of Qatar, I think there were some quarters who did not take this into consideration and relied on preconceived notions,” he said. “Of course we cannot change the opinion of those who just want to attack us or distort our image.”

Blinken’s visit comes as part of a strategic dialogue with Qatar, which also hosts some 8,000 American troops at its massive Al-Udeid Air Base that’s serves as the forward headquarters of the U.S. military’s Central Command. The base was a key node in America’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and evacuation of Afghan civilians.

One major issue to discuss is Iran. Nonproliferation experts say Iran now has enough uranium enriched up to 60% — a short step from weapons-grade levels — to reprocess into fuel for a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so.

Tehran insists its program is peaceful, though it has drastically expanded it since the collapse of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Meanwhile, Iran is being shaken by monthslong protests following the Sept. 16 death in custody of a 22-year-old woman arrested by the country’s morality police.

A crackdown by authorities and violence surrounding the demonstrations have killed at least 434 people, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been monitoring the protests. Iran is playing at the World Cup as well, and will face the U.S. on Nov. 29.

“The world is rightly focused on what’s happening inside of Iran,” Blinken said. “The protests that have arisen since the killing of Mahsa Amini are something that have galvanized the world.”ADVERTISEMENT

Questioned about the U.S. recent decision to shield Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the lawsuit targeting him for the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Blinken said the Biden administration would “simply follow the law” in terms of granting immunity to a head of state.

Blinken added there were no plans for the crown prince to visit the U.S.

In meetings with senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Blinken said the Biden administration had notified Congress of its intent to provide $2.2 billion in long-term military financing to Ukraine and 18 of its neighbors, including NATO members and regional security partners, that are “potentially at risk of future Russian aggression. “

“We know this is a pivotal moment, more than six months into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as your counteroffensive is now under way and proving effective,” Blinken told Zelenskyy.

Zelenskyy replied, “We are grateful for the signal, for this enormous support that you’re providing on a day-to-day basis.”

The White House said Biden was holding holding a call with allies and partners “to underscore our continued support for Ukraine.”

The new U.S. military financing is on top of a $675 million package of heavy weaponry, ammunition and armored vehicles for Ukraine alone that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced earlier Thursday at a conference in Ramstein, Germany.

Pending expected congressional approval, about $1 billion of the $2.2 billion will go to Ukraine and the rest will be divided among Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, the State Department said.

It will help those countries “deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity” by enhancing their military integration with NATO and countering “Russian influence and aggression,” the department said.

“This assistance demonstrates yet again our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s future as a democratic, sovereign, and independent state, as well as the security of allies and partners across the region,” it said.

Foreign Military Financing allows recipients to purchase U.S.-made defense equipment, often depending on their specific needs.

The package announced by Austin includes howitzers, artillery munitions, Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems and more that is intended to assist Ukraine with its shorter-term needs as it presses a counteroffensive against Russian forces.

Austin said “the war is at another key moment.”

“Now we’re seeing the demonstrable success of our common efforts on the battlefield,” he said at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which was attended by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukraine’s defense minister as well as officials from allied countries.

Germany and the Netherlands will provide training in demining to Ukrainian soldiers as well as demining equipment, the countries’ defense ministers said on the sidelines of the meeting with Austin. The training will be carried out in Germany. The two countries previously joined forces to send howitzers to Ukraine.

“The capabilities we are delivering are carefully calibrated to make the most difference on the battlefield,” Blinken said.

Thursday’s contributions bring total U.S. aid to Ukraine to $15.2 billion since Biden took office. U.S. officials said the new commitments were intended to show that American support for the country in the face of Russia’s invasion remains firm.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine is grateful for the “enormous support” the United States has sent Ukraine and singled out Biden and Congress for praise. He said the U.S. was helping Ukraine “return our territory and lands.”

The announcements came as fighting between Ukraine and Russia has intensified in recent days, with Ukrainian forces mounting a counteroffensive to retake Russian-held areas.

Ukrainian forces in the northeastern Kharkiv region have retaken portions of Russian-held territory there as a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south has drained some of Moscow’s resources in the area, according to a report from the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War.

Meanwhile, shelling continued near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, with the warring sides trading blame again amid dire warnings from the U.N. atomic watchdog, which has urged the creation of a safe zone to prevent a catastrophe.

On Wednesday, the U.S. accused Moscow of interrogating, detaining and forcibly deporting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to Russia. Russian officials rejected the claim as “fantasy.”

In Kyiv before meeting with Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Blinken visited the U.S. Embassy and then the National Specialized Children’s Hospital Ohmatdyt, where he saw boys and girls injured during Russian bombardments, including Maryna, a 6-year-old from the city of Kherson who lost a leg after a rocket struck her house.

In the hospital lobby, Blinken also met Patron, a Jack Russell terrier that has helped Ukraine’s military find more than 200 mines laid by Russian forces. Blinken kneeled down, petted the dog and presented him with treats, saying he was “world famous.”

In one ward, Blinken brought a basket of stuffed animals, which the children quickly dangled in front of Patron to get his attention.

Blinken told parents that “the spirit of your children sends a very strong message around the world.”

___

AP Diplomatic Writer Matthew Lee reported from Rzeszow, Poland.

China’s military drills were launched following a visit earlier this week by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan that infuriated Beijing.

“China has chosen to overreact and use Speaker Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait,” Blinken said at a news conference in the Cambodian capital.

Blinken also said the U.S. stands in “strong solidarity” with Japan following the “dangerous actions China has taken.”

Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined the foreign ministers of Russia and China at a meeting Friday with top diplomats from Southeast Asia at a time when the global powers are riven by tensions.

The East Asia Summit of the ongoing Association of Southeast Asian Nations meetings in Cambodia’s capital was the first time the three men were scheduled to take part in the same forum.

It came a day after WNBA star Brittney Griner was convicted of drug possession and sentenced to nine years in prison by Russia in a politically charged case amid antagonisms over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

China, meantime, has shown outrage over U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit this week to Taiwan — a self-governing island Beijing claims as its own — and launched show-of-force military exercises in response.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi patted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the shoulder as he entered the room and gave the already-seated Lavrov a quick wave before taking his own seat. Lavrov waved back in response.

Blinken, who entered the room last, did not even glance at Lavrov as he took his own seat about a half-dozen chairs away, or at Wang who was seated farther down the same table as Lavrov.

Ahead of the Phnom Penh talks, the U.S. State Department indicated Blinken had no plans to meet one-on-one with either man during the course of the meetings.

On Thursday, China canceled a foreign ministers’ meeting with Japan to protest a statement from the Group of 7 nations that said there was no justification for Beijing’s military exercises, which virtually encircle Taiwan.

“Japan, together with other member of the G-7 and the EU, made an irresponsible statement accusing China and confounding right and wrong,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in Beijing.

When Japan’s Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa began to speak Friday at the East Asia Summit, both Lavrov and Wang walked out of the room, according to a diplomat in the room who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the private session.

The East Asia Summit’s chair, Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, opened the 2 1/2 hour talks saying he hoped that all delegates would use the forum as a “means of engagement and communication” with one another.

“Every year we have our set of challenges to address but I have to say that never before, not like this year, have we been confronted with so many perils at the same time,” he said before ushering the media out to begin the closed-door talks.

He told a U.N. Security Council meeting called by the United States that the war has halted maritime trade in large areas of the Black Sea and made the region unsafe for navigation, trapping Ukrainian agricultural exports and jeopardizing global food supplies.

Blinken said the meeting, which he chaired, was taking place “at a moment of unprecedented global hunger” fueled by climate change and COVID-19 “and made even worse by conflict.”

Since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, he said, its naval operations have sought to control access to the northwestern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and to block Ukrainian ports which the United States assesses to be “a deliberate effort” to block safe passage and shut down shipping.

“As a result of the Russian government’s actions, some 20 million tons of grain sit unused in Ukrainian silos as global food supplies dwindle, prices skyrocket, causing more around the world to experience food insecurity,” Blinken said.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia dismissed as “absolutely false” claims by the U.S. and Western nations “that we want to starve everyone to death and that only you and Ukraine allegedly care about how to save the lives of the country.”

“You assert that allegedly we are preventing agricultural products from being taken out of Ukraine by sea,” he said. “However, the truth is that it is Ukraine and not Russia that has blocked 75 vessels from 17 states in the ports of Nikolaev, Kherson, Chernomorsk, Mariupol, Ochakov, Odesa and Yuzhniy and has mined the waterways.”

Nebenzia warned that “unless this issue is resolved, we cannot speak of any opportunities to export Ukrainian grain by sea.”

He stressed that Russia remains “a responsible supplier of both food and energy.”

Russia expects a record wheat crop and can offer to export 25 million tons of grain from Aug. 1 until the end of the year through the Novorossiysk port, he said, and it is also ready to discuss at least 22 million tons of fertilizer for export from June to December.

But Nebenzia said more than 10,000 sanctions on Russia have disrupted transportation routes, impeded movement of Russian vessels and banned them from entering ports, caused freight and insurance problems, restricted commercial transactions and created difficulties with banking transactions.

“If you do not want to lift your sanctions of choice, then why are you accusing us of causing this food crisis?” he asked. “Why is it that as a result of your irresponsible geopolitical games, the poorest countries and regions must suffer?”

Blinken called Russia’s claims that sanctions are to blame for the worsening global food crisis false, declaring that “the decision to weaponize food is Moscow’s and Moscow’s alone.”

“Sanctions aren’t blocking Black Sea ports, trapping ships filled with food, and destroying Ukrainian roads and railways; Russia is,” he said. “Sanctions are not emptying Ukrainian grain silos and stealing Ukrainian farm equipment; Russia is.”

Blinken said sanctions imposed by the U.S. and many others aren’t preventing Russia from exporting food and fertilizers because they exempt exports of food, fertilizer and seeds. “And we’re working with countries every day to ensure that they understand that sanctions do not prevent the flow of these items,” he said.

U.N. food chief David Beasley warned the Security Council that the war in Ukraine has created “an unprecedented crisis” of escalating food prices that are already sparking protests and riots and growing hunger that will add at least 47 million people to the 276 million “marching to starvation” before Russia’s invasion of its smaller neighbor.

The executive director of the World Food Program said 49 million people in 43 countries are already “knocking on famine’s door.”

Beasley recalled that when food prices got out of control in 2007 and 2008 over 40 countries faced political unrest, riots and protests.

“We are already seeing riots and protesting taking place as we speak — Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Pakistan, Peru,” he said. “We’ve seen destabilizing dynamics already in the Sahel from Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad. These are only signs of things to come.”

Beasley urged world leaders to do everything possible “to bring the markets to stability because things will get worse.”

The trip marks the highest-level visit by Biden administration officials to oil-rich Abu Dhabi, a potent show of support as America tries to repair troubled relations with its partner amid the fast-changing geopolitical landscape precipitated by Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s powerful national security adviser, greeted Harris on the windswept tarmac. The delegation also included Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, CIA Director William Burns and climate envoy John Kerry, among others.

The UAE named the assertive Abu Dhabi crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan its new president following the death of his half-brother last Friday. Sheikh Mohammed has served as the country’s de facto ruler and shaped the country’s muscular foreign policy since Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan suffered a stroke nearly a decade ago.

Under Sheikh Mohammed’s de facto rule, the UAE has intervened in regional conflicts from Yemen to Libya, used its vast oil wealth to exert sway abroad and transformed into a regional financial hub.

Underscoring Abu Dhabi’s great influence in Western and Arab capitals, an array of presidents, prime ministers and princes descended on the desert sheikhdom over the weekend to honor the late Sheikh Khalifa, praise Sheikh Mohammed and solidify ties. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson were the first European leaders to jet to the UAE capital.

More dignitaries filtered through the Abu Dhabi airport’s marbled presidential terminal on Monday. Britain’s Prince William came Monday to pay tribute to the late ruler of the former British protectorate, marking his second visit to the emirate so far this year.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian made a rare trip to Abu Dhabi that appeared to coincide with the U.S. trip. Iran has refused to meet American officials face-to-face, even as they negotiate a return to Tehran’s tattered nuclear accord with world powers.

Iran’s hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi also lauded Sheikh Mohammed’s ascension, a sign of the pragmatic relationship between the neighbors that support opposite sides in Yemen’s devastating war, harbor a long-running territorial dispute over islands in the Persian Gulf and yet retain crucial trade links despite sanctions.

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s own upstart crown prince and de facto ruler who is close to Sheikh Mohammed, also paid a condolence visit to the UAE on Monday, jetting to Abu Dhabi after escorting his father King Salman out of a hospital in the kingdom where he had undergone medical tests.

The mourners, close allies of the UAE, have included some bitter rivals, like Iran and Israel, India and Pakistan, Qatar and Egypt — a dramatic reminder of the country’s powerful role in the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message congratulating Sheikh Mohammed on Monday, saying he was “certain that your leadership will further strengthen the friendly Russian-Emirati relations,” according to the UAE’s state-run WAM news agency.

Syrian President Bashar Assad, who the UAE recently has courted after the brutal civil war that made him a pariah, also made a condolence call to Sheikh Mohammed on Monday. So did Ramzan Kadyrov, the regional leader of Chechnya, who faces U.S. sanctions over alleged extrajudicial killings.

Before departing Abu Dhabi, Harris said she had offered condolences on the death of the long-ailing Sheikh Khalifa and sought to shore up America’s crucial relationship with the UAE in her meeting with Sheikh Mohammed.

“We were here to discuss the strength of that partnership and that friendship and our commitment going forward … to reaffirm the shared commitment we have to security and prosperity in this region,” she told reporters, without taking questions.

It was widely expected officials would address the UAE’s long-simmering frustrations about American security protection in the region as well as tensions that have emerged between the countries over Russia’s war on Ukraine.

In a vague statement after Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s meeting with Blinken, the UAE said the two sides discussed “international issues of common interest, including the Ukraine crisis.” It said Sheikh Abdullah expressed deep thanks to Blinken for the “good feelings he showed toward the Emirati leadership, government and people.”

The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, has faced American pressure to shun Russia and pump more oil to improve stability in energy markets as Europe tries to wean itself off Russian crude.

But the UAE is a key Russian trading partner and member of the so-called OPEC Plus agreement, of which Russia is an important member. Emiratis have rebuffed American demands — resistance rooted in an apparent feeling that despite America’s continued strong military presence across the Arabian Peninsula, it’s no longer such a reliable partner.

After taking office, Biden lifted a terrorist designation on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have fired missiles and drones at the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and is trying to revive Tehran’s nuclear deal — an accord that Gulf Arab states fear could embolden Iran and its proxies.

America’s abrupt and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer and its long-term foreign policy goal of pivoting away from the Mideast and toward China has added to Gulf Arab concerns. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has suspended a multibillion-dollar sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE agreed by former President Donald Trump.

Trump abandoned Tehran’s nuclear deal and heavily courted Emirati and Saudi officials.

This spring, Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador to the U.S., described the allies as going through a “stress test.”

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DeBre reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tested positive for COVID-19 Wednesday afternoon, the State Department said.

Blinken, who is fully vaccinated and boosted against the coronavirus, “is experiencing only mild symptoms,” according to a statement by the State Department.

The top diplomat has not seen President Joe Biden in person for the past several days, and is not considered a close contact to Biden, the statement said.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that Biden tested negative for Covid on Tuesday.

Blinken and his wife Evan Ryan, along with Biden, attended the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington on Saturday night with 2,600 people, among them high-profile journalists, and government officials.

Ryan is the White House Cabinet Secretary, acting as the liaison between Biden and the U.S. departments and agencies whose leaders make up the president’s Cabinet.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said Blinken “will quarantine at home, he will follow [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidelines.

“I know he very much looks forward to returning to the office, returning to his full schedule, and returning to the road just as soon as he is able to do so,” Price said.

Before getting a positive result for Covid through a PCR test, Blinken had been scheduled to speak at the Kuwaiti embassy in Washington for a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees event.

“He has the mindset that they want to win, and we have the mindset that we want to help them win,” Austin told reporters in Poland, the day after the three-hour face-to-face meeting with Zelenskyy in Ukraine.

Austin said that the nature of the fight in Ukraine had changed now that Russia has pulled away from the wooded northern regions to focus on the eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas. Because the nature of the fight has evolved, so have Ukraine’s military needs, and Zelenskyy is now focused on more tanks, artillery and other munitions.

“The first step in winning is believing that you can win,” Austin said. “We believe that they can win if they have the right equipment, the right support, and we’re going to do everything we can … to ensure that gets to them.”

Asked about what the U.S. sees as success, Austin said that “we want to see Ukraine remain a sovereign country, a democratic country able to protect its sovereign territory. We want to see Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine.”

The trip by Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was the highest-level American visit to the capital since Russia invaded in late February.

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They told Zelenskyy and his advisers that the U.S. would provide more than $300 million in foreign military financing and had approved a $165 million sale of ammunition.

“We had an opportunity to demonstrate directly our strong ongoing support for the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people,” Blinken said. “This was, in our judgment, an important moment to be there, to have face-to-face conversations in detail.”

Blinken said their meeting with the Ukrainians lasted for three hours for wide ranging talks, including what help the country needs in the weeks ahead.

“The strategy that we’ve put in place, massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia, solidarity with more than 30 countries engaged in these efforts is having real results,” Blinken said.

“When it comes to Russia’s war aims, Russia is failing. Ukraine is succeeding. Russia has sought as its principal aim to totally subjugate Ukraine, to take away its sovereignty, to take away its independence. That has failed.”

As expected, President Joe Biden announced on Monday his nomination of Bridget Brink to serve as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Brink, a career foreign service officer, has served since 2019 as ambassador to Slovakia. She previously held assignments in Serbia, Cyprus, Georgia and Uzbekistan as well as with the White House National Security Council. The post requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate.

The announcement comes as American diplomats prepare to return to Ukraine this coming week, although the U.S. embassy in Kyiv will remain closed for now.

Journalists who traveled with Austin and Blinken to Poland were barred from reporting on the trip until it was over, were not allowed to accompany them on their overland journey into Ukraine, and were prohibited from specifying where in southeast Poland they met back up with the Cabinet members upon their return. Officials at the State Department and the Pentagon cited security concerns.

Austin and Blinken announced a total of $713 million in foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 allied and partner countries; some $322 million is earmarked for Kyiv. The remainder will be split among NATO members and other nations that have provided Ukraine with critical military supplies since the war with Russia began, officials said.

Such financing is different from previous U.S. military assistance for Ukraine. It is not a donation of drawn-down U.S. Defense Department stockpiles, but rather cash that countries can use to purchase supplies that they might need.

The new money, along with the sale of $165 million in non-U.S.-made ammunition that is compatible with Soviet-era weapons the Ukrainians use, brings the total amount of American military assistance to Ukraine to $3.7 billion since the invasion, officials said.

Biden has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of genocide for the destruction and death wrought on Ukraine. Just on Thursday, Biden said he would provide a new package of $800 million in military aid to Ukraine that included heavy artillery and drones.

Congress approved $6.5 billion for military assistance last month as part of $13.6 billion in spending for Ukraine and allies in response to the Russian invasion.

From Poland, Blinken plans to return to Washington while Austin will head to Ramstein, Germany, for a meeting Tuesday of NATO defense ministers and other donor countries.

That discussion will look at battlefield updates from the ground, additional security assistance for Ukraine and longer-term defense needs in Europe, including how to step up military production to fill gaps caused by the war in Ukraine, officials said. More than 20 nations are expected to send representatives to the meeting.

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Associated Press writer David Rising contributed to this report from Bangkok.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke of the plans Saturday during a press conference. He did not immediately share more detail about the visit from Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin.

The White House and the U.S. State Department declined to comment on Zelenskyy’s remarks. The Pentagon will also not speak to the claim from the Ukrainian president, according to two defense officials.

Zelenskyy has for weeks urged Western allies to send Ukraine more weapons to counter the Russian invasion.

Their trip would mark the highest-level U.S. officials to visit to the country since the beginning of the war. The Russian invasion will enter its third month Sunday.

This is a live update. Click here for complete coverage of the crisis in Ukraine.

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Blinken made the comments shortly before joining his counterparts from Israel and four Arab countries at a special gathering where the Iranian nuclear deal was expected to top the agenda. Israel and many of its neighbors are fiercely opposed to the deal, which they believe with embolden and enrich Iran.

“When it comes to the most important element, we see eye-to-eye,” Blinken told reporters at a news conference with Israel’s foreign minister. “We are both committed, both determined that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon.”

The Biden administration has been working to renew the 2015 nuclear deal, which placed curbs on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. With support from Israel, the Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018, causing it to unravel.

Although Iran has since raced ahead with its nuclear program, Israel and Gulf Arab countries are deeply concerned about restoring the original deal. Israel fears it does not include enough safeguards to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Both Israel and its Gulf allies also believe that relief from economic sanctions will allow Iran to step up its military activities across the region, including support for hostile militant groups.

Blinken said the U.S. believes that restoring the nuclear deal “is the best way to put Iran’s program back in the box it was in.” He added: “Our commitment to the core principle of Iran never acquiring a nuclear weapon is unwavering.”

He also vowed to cooperate with Israel to counter Iran’s “aggressive behavior” across the region.

It remains unclear if or when the nuclear deal will be renewed, but there are indications it could be soon despite several last-minute snags, one of which involves Iran’s demand for the U.S. to lift its designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a “foreign terrorist organization.”

Israel is deeply opposed to such a step and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Blinken that he hoped “the United States will hear the concerned voices from the region — Israel’s and others — on this very important issue.”

Israel and its neighbors believe any easing of sanctions and the delisting to the IRGC would embolden Iranian-backed militant groups from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, who have recent launched several rocket attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, a senior European official was in Tehran on Sunday to try to unsnag the talks a day after Iran’s top diplomat publicly signaled flexibility over the IRGC designation.

If a deal is reached, Israel has repeatedly noted that it is not a party to the agreement and reserves the right to take action, including a potential military strike, against Iran.

“Israel and the United States will continue to work together to prevent a nuclear Iran. At the same time, Israel will do anything we believe is needed to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Anything,” Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said.

Underscoring regional anxieties, Israel’s government hastily arranged a meeting of top diplomats from Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel. The two-day gathering, with Blinken, was beginning late Sunday at a kibbutz in the Negev Desert.

In addition to Blinken and Lapid, their counterparts from Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt were attending. All four countries are considered moderate Sunni Muslim nations. Jordan, another pro-Western Arab country that has a peace agreement with Israel, declined an invitation, apparently in solidarity with the Palestinians.

The U.S. preoccupation with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and bolstering NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe has fueled concerns throughout the Middle East that America’s attention may be stretched thin.

It remained unclear whether any decisions would emerge from the diplomatic gathering. But for Israel, hosting such a gathering itself is a significant accomplishment. Egypt is the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, while the other three nations normalized relations with Israel in 2020 in the so-called Abraham Accords brokered by the Trump administration.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said the meeting was “quite remarkable” simply by bringing together four Arab four ministers to Israel for a public, high-level gathering for the first time.

He said discussions would likely focus on the aftermath of a nuclear deal, with each country looking for different things, whether it be security guarantees, weapons systems, intelligence or diplomatic support. “Each country has its own wish list, but the common denominator is Iran,” he said.

While Iran may be the issue of most immediate concern to Israel and its neighbors, the war in Ukraine looms large.

That conflict has roiled world energy markets, leading the U.S. and Europe to appeal to Arab and other major oil suppliers to step up production. The war may also soon result in major food security challenges, particularly across the Middle East, which imports vast quantities of wheat from Ukraine.

Bennett has presented himself as a mediator between Putin, Ukraine and the West but his discussions with the Russian leader have yet to bear fruit.

Blinken later traveled to Ramallah in the occupied West Bank to meet with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and stress to him the U.S. commitment to help the Palestinian people and encourage a resumption in long-stalled peace talks with Israel.

Abbas thanked the U.S. for restoring financial assistance to the Palestinians cut off by the Trump administration, and urged the Biden administration to do more to promote the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip — lands captured by Israel in 1967.

“The priority should always be a political solution that ends the Israeli occupation of the land of the state of Palestine on the 1967 borders with east Jerusalem as its capital,” he said.

Ahead of his meetings with the Palestinians, Blinken called on both sides to avoid taking actions that could raise tensions ahead of the sensitive holiday period around Passover, Easter and Ramadan. “It’s a message that I’ll be underscoring in all of my meetings on this trip,” he said.

Last year, violence between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters in Jerusalem spilled over into an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas.

Bennett announced that Israel was raising the number of Gazans allowed to work in Israel to 20,000 people as part of a broader effort to ease tensions.

“While we can’t solve everything, we can improve the lives of people on the ground,” he said.

__

Associated Press writer Josef Federman in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

U.S. preoccupation with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and bolstering NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe has fueled concerns that America’s attention may be stretched thin. Indeed, Blinken’s trip was rescheduled several times due to developments in Ukraine, and he arrived late Saturday in Israel from Warsaw after breaking off from President Joe Biden’s Ukraine-dominated visit to Belgium and Poland.

Blinken’s visit also comes as talks over salvaging a landmark nuclear deal with Iran are winding down amid fears in Israel and among Gulf Arab nations that an agreement may not be tough enough to curb Tehran’s regional aggressiveness.

Israel was strongly opposed to the 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers and welcomed then-President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw from the deal. Israel has warned against reviving the agreement and says it will not be bound by any new one.

Underscoring regional anxieties, Israel’s government has hastily arranged a meeting of top diplomats from Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel.

In addition to Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, their counterparts from Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates will attend.

Those three countries normalized relations with Israel in 2020 in the so-called Abraham Accords brokered by the Trump administration.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced Saturday that Egypt, the first Arab state to recognize Israel, would also send its foreign minister to the gathering at a kibbutz in the Negev Desert where Israel’s founding father, David Ben-Gurion, spent his retirement years. The two-day summit is to begin Sunday, according to the announcement, which gave no details about the agenda.

An official involved in the planning said the gathering was the first of its kind in terms of the large number of Arab partners to be hosted by Israel. He said shared concerns about Iran and the nuclear deal were sure to be part of the discussions with the Americans. The goal was to bring together moderate Arab partners to discuss a vision for “how the region moves forward” together with the United States, said the official, who was not authorized to publicly discuss details of the meeting because the agenda was not finalized and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Biden administration has welcomed the Abraham Accords, one of the few Trump foreign policy initiatives it has praised, and expressed interest in negotiating additional ones despite frosty reaction from the Palestinians. They have watched unhappily as Arab nations recognize Israel while their own conflict with Israel remains unresolved.

The U.S. has repeatedly said it supports a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and, after seeing Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Jerusalem, Blinken will meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, on the West Bank, to reaffirm that position.

While Iran and the uncertain status of the nuclear negotiations in Vienna may be the issue of most immediate concern to Israel and its neighbors, the war in Ukraine and efforts to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the invasion loom large.

That conflict has roiled world energy markets, leading the U.S. and Europe to appeal to Arab and other major oil suppliers to step up production. The war may also soon result in major food security challenges, particularly across the Middle East, which imports vast quantities of grain from Ukraine.

Bennett has presented himself as a mediator between Putin, Ukraine and the West but his discussions with the Russian leader have yet to bear fruit. U.S, officials say Blinken plans to discuss possible roles that Israel, which has concerns about the Russian presence in its northern neighbor Syria, could play.

Israel has walked a fine line between Russia and Ukraine since hostilities began last month. Bennett has expressed support for the Ukrainian people but stopped short of condemning Russia’s invasion. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has been much more outspoken in his criticism of Russia, giving Bennett some space to continue his mediation efforts.

Israel regularly conducts airstrikes on what it says are hostile Iranian military targets in Syria. Such strikes must be coordinated with Russia, which intervened in Syria’s civil war in 2015 on the side of President Bashar Assad. Russia is also a party to the Iran talks.

After Israel, Biden will travel on to Morocco and Algeria. Apart from seeing senior Moroccan officials in Rabat, Blinken will also meet there with Abu Dhabi’s powerful crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates.

He is a key player in the region and met with Bennett and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in Egypt this past week, and with el-Sissi, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Jordan.

But he angered the United States by hosting Assad recently, drawing a firm rebuke from Washington. The U.S. said the meeting was inappropriate while Syria’s civil war continues and that there should be no business as usual with Damascus.

The visit was Assad’s first to an Arab country since the Syrian uprising began in 2011. The UAE, a U.S. ally and the driving force behind the Abraham Accords, has also tried to avoid angering Russia.

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Associated Press writer Josef Federman contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Antony Blinken formally announced Wednesday that the United States government believes Russia committed war crimes in Ukraine and should be prosecuted.

In a statement, Blinken repeatedly raised the brutality in the city of Mariupol, Ukraine and he compared it to similar Russian campaigns against Grozny in the Second Chechen War and Aleppo during the Syrian civil war.

“Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded,” he said. 

Many of the buildings Russian forces have hit are “clearly identifiable as in-use by civilians,” Blinken said, citing bombings of the Mariupol maternity hospital and a theater there that was clearly marked with the word for children in Russian “in huge letters visible from the sky.”

The U.S. assessment is based on publicly available information and intelligence sources, said Blinken, who issued the statement while President Joe Biden was in the air en route to Brussels for NATO and G-7 summits this week.

Blinken noted that the question of Russia’s guilt or innocence would ultimately be left in the hands of a court of law. And while he did not mention it by name, the traditional court of jurisdiction in cases of alleged war crimes is the International Criminal Court, or ICC.

The United States is not a member of the ICC. Created in 2002 to prosecute international war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity, at the time of its founding the U.S. was embroiled in a war in Afghanistan and gearing up for an invasion or Iraq.

The decision to release this assessment now was hardly accidental. The White House has spent weeks preparing a long list of so-called deliverables for Biden to bring with him to the Brussels summits — concrete U.S. actions, positions and commitments to showcase America’s steadfast loyalty to NATO and to the mission to aid Ukraine.

Russia launched its brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 under the false pretense that Russian forces would “de-Nazify” Ukraine. The Kremlin’s claim was particularly cynical given that Ukraine is led by a beloved president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is himself a Jewish descendant of Holocaust survivors.

Authorities made the determination based on confirmed accounts of mass atrocities on civilians by Myanmar’s military in a widespread and systematic campaign against the ethnic minority, Blinken said in a speech at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.

It is the eighth time since the Holocaust that the U.S. has concluded a genocide has occurred. The secretary of state noted the importance of calling attention to inhumanity even as horrific attacks occur elsewhere in the world, including Ukraine.

“Yes, we stand with the people of Ukraine,” he said. “And we must also stand with people who are suffering atrocities in other places.”

The government of Myanmar, also known as Burma, is already under multiple layers of U.S. sanctions since a military coup ousted the democratically elected government in February 2021. Thousands of civilians throughout the country have been killed and imprisoned as part of ongoing repression of anyone opposed to the ruling junta.

The determination that a genocide has occurred could lead other nations to increase pressure on the government, which is already facing accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

“As we lay the foundation for future accountability, we’re also working to stop the military’s ongoing atrocities, and support the people of Burma as they strive to put the country back on the path to democracy,” Blinken said.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Blinken’s announcement “emphasizes, especially to victims and survivors, that the United States recognizes the gravity of these crimes.”

“Our view is that shining a light on the crimes of Burma’s military will increase international pressure, make it harder for them to commit further abuses,” she said.

Rohingya, from Muslim Myanmar’s western Rakhine state, faced systematic persecution at the hands of the Buddhist majority for decades under both the military junta that ruled the nation for decades as well as the democratically-elected government.

More than 700,000 Rohingya have fled from Buddhist-majority Myanmar to refugee camps in Bangladesh since August 2017, when the military launched an operation aimed at clearing them from the country following attacks by a rebel group.

The status of the plight of the Rohingya had been under extended review by U.S. government legal experts since the Trump administration, given potential legal ramifications of such a finding. The delay in the determination had drawn criticism from both inside and outside the government.

“While this determination is long overdue, it is nevertheless a powerful and critically important step in holding this brutal regime to account,” said Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley.

Human rights groups also welcomed the determination, which is similar to findings already made by other countries, including Canada, France and Turkey.

“The U.S. determination of the crime of genocide against us is a momentous moment and must lead to concrete action to hold the Burmese military accountable for their crimes,” said Tun Khin, president of the Burmese Rohingya Organisation UK.

Human Rights Watch said the U.S. and other governments should seek justice for crimes carried out by the military and impose stronger sanctions against its leadership.

“The U.S. government should couple its condemnations of Myanmar’s military with action,” said John Sifton, the group’s Asia advocacy director. “For too long, the U.S. and other countries have allowed Myanmar’s generals to commit atrocities with few real consequences.”

A 2018 State Department report documented instances of Myanmar’s military razing villages and carrying out rapes, tortures and mass killings of civilians since at least 2016. Blinken said evidence showed the violence wasn’t isolated, but part of a systematic program that amounts to crimes against humanity.

“The evidence also points to a clear intent behind these mass atrocities, the intent to destroy Rohingya, in whole or in part, through killings, rape, and torture,” he said.

Previous determinations of genocide by the U.S. include campaigns against Uyghurs and other largely Muslim minorities in China as well as in Bosnia, Rwanda, Iraq and Darfur.

In a related development, a report released Mondayshared exclusively with The Associated Press showed the rights group Global Witness submitted eight paid ads for approval to Facebook, each including different versions of hate speech against Rohingya.

All eight ads were approved by Facebook to be published. The ads were not published, but the results confirmed that despite its promises to do better, Facebook is not effectively preventing hate speech on its platforms.

___

Associated Press writers Darlene Superville and Matthew Lee contributed.

The United States and the United Kingdom on Wednesday hardened their opposition to imposing any form of a no-fly zone in Ukraine, despite Kyiv’s pleas for more protection from Russia’s invasion.

“Our goal is to end the war, not to expand it,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a joint press conference alongside U.K. Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss.

Ukraine’s allies, including President Joe Biden and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, have sought to support Kyiv without putting boots on the ground.

They also have declined the increasingly strident requests from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to enact a no-fly zone, which could lead to the shooting down of Russian aircraft over Ukraine.

Imposing that rule in airspace where Russian planes are already flying would dramatically raise the risk of dragging NATO and the U.S. into direct combat with Russia, which experts fear could precipitate a full-on war between nuclear-armed powers.

“We want to make sure that [the invasion] is not prolonged, to the best of our ability, otherwise it’s going to turn even deadlier, involve more people and I think potentially even make things harder to resolve in Ukraine itself,” Blinken said.

Putting any U.S. troops in Ukraine, even on a limited basis, “would expand the conflict,” Blinken said. “It would prolong it, it would make it much more deadlier than it already is, and that would be neither in the interests of our countries nor in the interest of Ukraine.”

But he noted that “if I were in President Zelenskyy’s position, I’m sure I would be asking for everything possible, in his mind, to help the Ukrainian people.”

Zelenskyy himself has repeatedly called for allies to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, as reports mount of Russian attacks hitting civilians.

“How much longer will the world be an accomplice ignoring terror? Close the sky right now! Stop the killings!” Zelenskyy wrote Wednesday morning in a tweet accusing Russian troops of striking a hospital in the city of Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine.

Ukraine on Wednesday also accused Russia of violating a cease-fire in Mariupol, blocking civilians from evacuating the city.

The alleged hospital attack is “absolutely abhorrent, reckless and appalling,” Truss said at the briefing. She maintained, however, that “the best way to help protect the skies is through antiair weaponry,” rather than a no-fly zone.

“We’re doing all we can to support” Ukraine, Truss said.

Blinken also poured cold water on a proposal from Poland to hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets to the U.S. — which could then transfer those jets to Ukraine — saying there was no clear “substantive rationale” for enacting the plan.

“Poland’s proposal shows that there are some complexities that the issue presents when it comes to providing security assistance,” Blinken said.

The “prospect of fighter jets at the disposal of the United States government, departing from the U.S. base for Germany to fly into airspace contested with Russia over Ukraine, raises some serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted world leaders, international groups and private corporations to respond with an unprecedented barrage of sanctions and other penalties targeting the Russian economy, its elite leaders and oligarchs — and even Putin himself.

The Kremlin said earlier Wednesday that the U.S. is “de facto waging an economic war against Russia,” after the Biden administration announced a ban on Russian oil imports.

Tensions are rising in Europe’s ex-Soviet Baltic nations that President Vladimir Putin might not stop at invading Ukraine, and could have his sights set on them.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — the Baltic countries located in north-eastern Europe — are now members of the EU and NATO. However, in June 1940 they were invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union and after World War II were a part of the USSR until its collapse in 1991 when they regained their independence.

Today, it’s estimated that a million ethnic Russians still live in the Baltics. That is a worry for the region, as Putin’s pretext for an invasion of Ukraine was the “protecting” of ethnic Russians the country’s east — a justification widely questioned and dismissed by many experts on the region.

Many analysts perceive Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to rebuild Russia’s lost Soviet empire, the destruction of which Putin once described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”

Russia has also sought to bring other former Soviet republics into its sphere of influence, including Belarus and Georgia to its north and Moldova to its south, with varying degrees of success. There have been a number of anti-government protests in these countries over the years, most notably Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolutions in 2004 and 2013.

Now, there are concerns in the Baltic states that Russia, having invaded one former Soviet territory, could go further and launch an assault on them.

European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis warned Monday that the EU had to take the Russian threat seriously.

“If we do not support Ukraine, it’s not going to stop in Ukraine. Clearly Putin is now in some kind of aggressive war mood and unfortunately it is likely that this aggression will continue in other countries,” he said in an interview with Politico published Monday evening.

In an apparent effort to reassure the region, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken started a two-day tour of the Baltics on Monday, visiting Lithuania and Latvia Monday and Estonia Tuesday.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda appeared to press Blinken for more collective NATO action when speaking at a joint press conference, saying that “deterrence is no longer enough, and we need more defense here … because otherwise it will be too late here, Mr. Secretary. Putin will not stop in Ukraine; he will not stop.”

And the country’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the West had a “collective duty and obligation” to help Ukraine, adding: “If you want to avoid the third world war. The choice is in our hands.”

Blinken responded by insisting that “the United States, with all allies and partners, will defend every – every inch of NATO territory should it come under attack, and there should be no doubt about that on anyone’s mind.”

But he stressed that NATO has no aggressive intent and will not seek out conflict.

Second Cold War?

Latvia’s Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told CNBC Tuesday that he had been reassured by Blinken’s visit. He welcomed the pledges for practical support, such as additional U.S. troops in the region and discussions on bolstering its defenses.

“One really important thing is that there are not only political statements but also already practical things,” he told “Squawk Box Europe.” “I feel the U.S. support very much.”

In a press conference Monday, Rinkevics said that public opinion and policymakers’ decision-making had shifted with regards to military deployments, noting that now “we need a permanent stationing of NATO troops, including U.S. troops, on our soil” — something he had called for before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On the day Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb. 24), Biden ordered the deployment of an additional 7,000 U.S. troops to Europe, and moved forces already in Europe to NATO’s eastern flank, including to Latvia.

When asked if he was worried that Russia could cite the protection of ethnic Russians as a pretext for further invasions, Rinkevics said there was a “huge difference” between Ukraine and the Baltics, as they are part of NATO and the EU.

“If you look at the composition of Latvia, there are no such territories that are hugely Russian-populated,” he said. “Yes, there is a Russian minority, but there is a shift in the Russian-speaking population as we speak.”

Nonetheless, Rinkevics said he feared that a second Cold War was emerging, with a schism growing between the West and Russia, and countries within its sphere of influence. “The Iron Curtain is now falling, Russia is disconnecting itself from the Western world … I think we’re in a very long situation here.”

‘Aggressive war mood’

Even though the Baltic states have been a part of NATO and the EU since 2004, with all three using the euro as their currency, their geographic location makes them vulnerable. Like Ukraine, they all share a border with Russia. Latvia and Lithuania also share a border with Russia’s ally Belarus, which is widely believed to be supporting Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Krista Viksnins, program assistant with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, commented in an editorial last week that the Baltics had good reason to be concerned.

“All three [Baltic countries] have successfully reintegrated into Europe. Yet they are now at risk and must be among the West’s top priorities — Russia has demonstrated its desire to make Ukraine a vassal state through full-scale military action and may not stop its bloody campaigns,” Viksnins wrote.

“Just as Vladimir Putin issued blood-curdling threats to Ukraine before his unprovoked assault, so too he has menaced the Baltic states.”

It’s an issue also raised by the European Commission’s Dombrovskis in his Monday interview.

“If you look at escalating Russia’s aggressive rhetoric and even statements claiming Russia supporting Belarusian interests in having access to Baltic Sea, and the increasing anti-Baltic rhetoric — well in Ukraine, it also started with increasing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric,” he added.

The Western officials all agree: Ukraine must be helped in its war against Russia.

The West should support Ukraine in “any way we can,” Latvia’s Foreign Minister Rinkevics said, while Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told CNBC Monday that “any country that has means, should be providing what it can.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article contains a graphic photo of soldiers removing human remains.

The United States is collecting evidence of possible war crimes, human rights abuses and violations of international law by Russia during its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, a National Security Council spokesperson told NBC News on Monday.

The statement comes as Russia has been widely condemned for its attack on Ukraine, which has included shelling of civilian areas that has driven more than 1.5 million refugees out of the country.

It also comes a day after a New York Times journalist and the mayor of Irpin, Ukraine, reported seeing a family of two adults and two young children killed by Russian artillery, images of which were widely circulated around the world.

“We are appalled by Russia’s brutal tactics and the rising number of innocent civilians who have been killed in Russian strikes, which have reportedly hit schools, hospitals, kindergartens, an orphanage, residential buildings and those fleeing through humanitarian corridors,” the NSC spokesperson told NBC News.

“We are collecting evidence of possible war crimes, human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law,” they said. “We support accountability using every tool available, including criminal prosecutions where appropriate.”

The U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Michael Carpenter, earlier Monday condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for his “unprovoked war.”

Carpenter said 45 participating states launched the so-called Moscow Mechanism to document and gather evidence of violations of international law. A report from that inquiry will be presented to the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice “so individuals at all levels are held to account,” he said.

“The brutality of this war is both revolting and heartbreaking,” said Carpenter. “Children have been killed, grandparents driven from their homes, families forced to flee their country in the face of relentless strikes on civilian infrastructure.”

“The depravity of it all is mind-blowing.”

Carpenter cited Russia’s agreement on Saturday and Sunday to open a humanitarian corridor out of the cities of Volnovakha and Mariupol, which it then bombed as civilians began using it to flee the country.

“It is pure evil,” he said.

The ambassador also noted that on Monday, Russia proposed that Ukrainians flee the areas under Russian attack by going to Russia and Belarus, which are allies.

“This is the height of cynicism,” Carpenter said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN on Sunday: “We’ve seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime. We’ve seen very credible reports about the use of certain weapons.”

The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor last week opened an investigation into Russia’s conduct in Ukraine.

“I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine in relation to the events already assessed during the preliminary examination by the Office,” said the prosecutor, Karim Khan.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 1.777% at around 4:00 p.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added 3 basis points to 2.186%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Moscow claimed Monday that it will stop attacks in four Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, to allow the evacuation of civilians.

Evacuation attempts were halted over the weekend after Russian forces were accused of violating cease-fires in the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the United States and its allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude futures briefly topped $130 a barrel on Sunday evening, its highest point since 2008, amid concerns of a ban on Russian oil and gas.

There are concerns that a ban on Russian oil and gas would increase the risk of stagflation, where inflation rises but economic growth slows.

Investors will, therefore, be watching inflation data, due out later in the week, even more closely.

There are no major economic data releases slated to come out on Monday.

Auctions are scheduled to be held for $60 billion of 13-week bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills.

— CNBC.com staff contributed to this market report.

Oil prices leaped — exceeding $130 a barrel to touch a 13-year high — on the possibility that the United States and its allies will completely ban Russian oil and natural gas imports.

“We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview on Sunday.

“That’s a very active discussion as we speak,” he said.

Separately, U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House is “exploring strong legislation that will further isolate Russia from the global economy,” including a ban on oil imports and steps to “deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization.”

Meanwhile on the ground in Ukraine, Russian forces appear to have made no significant movement over the past day, according to a senior U.S. Defense official. Leading elements of the Russian advance remain outside Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv as they’re met by strong Ukrainian resistance.

Almost all the military strength that Russia amassed along the Ukraine border prior to invading has now been sent into Ukraine, the Defense official said.

No-fly zone over Ukraine would increase risk of a U.S.-Russia war, defense analyst says

A no-fly zone over Ukraine would “greatly increase” the risk of a war between the U.S. and Russia, according to Ted Galen Carpenter, senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

“It’s absolutely imperative that the United States resist Zelenskyy’s call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.

The Ukrainian president has repeatedly asked NATO to establish a no-fly zone over his country, but the U.S. and its allies have so far rejected that request. Setting up a no-fly zone would mean the alliance would have to shoot down Russian aircraft over Ukraine.

“That would greatly increase the danger of a war between the United States and Russia, and we are talking about a war with nuclear implications at that point,” Carpenter said.

“I don’t think anyone in the United States thinks that Ukraine’s security is worth taking that level of risk,” he added.

Putin previously said he would consider a third-party declaration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine as “participation of that country in the military action.”

— Abigail Ng

Three-way talks underway to send fighter jets to Ukraine

Poland, Ukraine and the United States are in talks on a deal that would get more MiG fighter jets into the hands of Ukraine.

NBC News reported that the deal would involve Poland giving MiG fighter planes to Ukraine, and the United States in turn replacing Poland’s fighters with U.S.-made F-16s.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia has established air superiority in their 11-day old war, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an urgent request for fighter aircraft during a call with 300 members of Congress on Saturday.

Ukrainian pilots are not trained to fly U.S.-made warplanes. However, Poland and Ukraine both operate MiGs — aircraft designed and made in Russia — that are left over from the days of the Soviet Union.

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba over the weekend said warplanes and air-defense systems are his country’s “highest demand” as Ukraine faces almost 200,000 Russian troops and their vehicles.

The F-16 is manufactured by General Dynamics, a unit of Lockheed Martin.

—Ted Kemp

U.S. House ‘exploring strong legislation’ to ban Russian oil

In a letter to Democratic colleagues, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the U.S. House of Representatives is “exploring strong legislation” to ban imports of Russian oil.

The legislation would “further isolate Russia from the global economy,” she wrote.

“Our bill would ban the import of Russian oil and energy products into the United States, repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, and take the first step to deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization. We would also empower the Executive branch to raise tariffs on Russian imports,” she said.

The House will vote on aid to Ukraine this week totaling $10 billion in humanitarian, military and economic support.

—Ted Kemp

U.S. crude oil spikes above $125 per barrel on possible Western ban of Russian oil

U.S. crude oil jumped above $125 per barrel in early trading Sunday evening, as the market continued to react to supply disruptions stemming from the war between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility that the U.S. and its allies and partners could institute a ban on Russian oil and natural gas.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, surged 8%, at one point topping $130 a barrel, to reach its highest level since mid-2008. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded 9% higher to $128.60, also the highest price seen since 2008.

“Oil is rising on the prospect for a full embargo of Russian oil and products,” said John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital. “Already high gasoline prices are going to keep going up in a jarring fashion. Prices in some states will be pushing $5 pretty quickly.”

— Tanaya Macheel

Senior U.S. defense official provides latest assessment of the Russian-Ukraine war

A senior U.S. defense official early Sunday evening in Washington, D.C., released an updated assessment of how the war is going in Ukraine.

Among the latest updates:

• The U.S. has observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces’ continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance.
• Russian troops remain outside these city centers, though there were no specifics on how far away they were. Russian forces do not appear to have made any significant advances along their lines of attack. The 40-mile long Russian convoy headed for the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv continues to be stalled.
• The U.S. assesses that somewhere near 95% of the combat power Russia had amassed along the border is now in Ukraine.
• The U.S. has observed fighting in the south near Kherson and Mykolaiv, but can’t independently verify reporting of Russian forces firing on protesters in Kherson.
• Senior U.S. defense officials have not observed an amphibious invasion in or near Odessa, nor do they believe that one is imminent.
• Fighting continues as the Russians continue to attempt to encircle Mariupol, and there continue to be reports of widespread utility outages (water and electricity).
• The airspace over Ukraine continues to be contested. Ukrainian air and missile defenses remain effective and in use. The Ukrainian military continues to fly aircraft and employ air defense assets.
• The U.S. assesses that both sides still possess a majority of their air defense systems and capabilities.
• As of Sunday, approximately 600 launches of Russian missiles of all sizes have occurred since the invasion began.
• Defense officials believe the Ukrainian people in most parts of the country still have means of communication, access to the internet and the media.

— Terri Cullen

Rally for Ukraine outside the White House

Participants attend a rally protesting the Russian invasion of Ukraine at Lafayette Square across from the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 6, 2022.

— Adam Jeffery

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says ‘sanctions are not enough’

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on world leaders to do more for his country.

“Sanctions are not enough. Because there, they [Russia] did not understand, did not feel, and did not see that the world is in fact decisive and is acting, and in fact wants to stop this war,” Zelenskyy said, according to a translation of video posted on his Telegram channel.

Zelenskyy has been imploring Western nations and alliances to take a harsher stance against Russia following the nation’s invasion on Ukraine. The leader most prominently has been calling for NATO countries to implement a no-fly zone on Ukraine, a decision that many view could start a world war. NATO denied the request.

Zelenskyy on Saturday, speaking during a bipartisan Zoom meeting with more than 300 lawmakers and staff, said that if nations will not close the airspace, then they should ban Russian-made aircraft. He also called for more aid, such as planes and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

VP Harris on Ukrainians: their bravery is a ‘reminder that freedom and democracy can never be taken for granted’

Vice President Kamala Harris commented on the conflict in Ukraine during a public appearance Sunday in Alabama.

“Today, the eyes of the world are on Ukraine and the brave people who are fighting to protect their country and their democracy,” she said. “And their bravery is a reminder that freedom and democracy can never be taken for granted by any of us.”

Harris spoke from Selma, Alabama, where she was commemorating the 57th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday.”

— Samantha Subin

Netflix suspends service in Russia

Netflix is suspending its service in Russia, the company confirmed to CNBC.

“Given the circumstances on the ground, we have decided to suspend our service in Russia,” a spokesperson said Sunday afternoon.

The Russian market makes up a relatively small percentage of Netflix’s overall numbers. The company has just under 1 million subscribers in Russia, CNBC previously reported.

The streaming service previously stopped projects and acquisitions in Russia after the country began its invasion on Ukraine. It had four Russian-language series in production and post-production. Netflix also declined to comply with Russian rules to carry news channels.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

KPMG, PwC are cutting ties to Russia

KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers are cutting ties with their Russian operations in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the accounting firms said Sunday.

“KPMG has over 4,500 people in Russia and Belarus, and ending our working relationship with them, many of whom have been a part of KPMG for many decades, is incredibly difficult,” KPMG wrote in a statement Sunday. “This decision is not about them – it is a consequence of the actions of the Russian Government. We are a purpose-led and values-driven organization that believes in doing the right thing.”

PwC’s global chairman Bob Moritz also announced in an email to employees Sunday that the firm would cut ties with its Russian operations, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Moritz also reportedly said the company would halt working with Russian firms or individuals affected by sanctions.

“We know this is the right thing to do, but that doesn’t make it easy,” he wrote in the email.

In February, PwC said it had more than 750 employees in offices across Ukraine including Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv. PwC has 3,000 employees and partners in Russia, the Journal reported.

— Samantha Subin

International volunteers pick-up arms and head to Ukraine

In a report issued by the Ukrainian army stating the creation of a foreign legion unit for international volunteers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to foreign nationals to join his army in the fight against Russia.

— Adam Jeffery

Heightened security fears in the Baltic states following Russia’s Ukraine invasion

CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick reports from Vilnius, the capital and the largest city of Lithuania, where he explains the geography and history of the region, and why it’s so concerned regarding recent Russian military aggression and the invasion of Ukraine.

— Matt Clinch

Portion of Goldman Sachs employees move from Russia to Dubai, report says

Some of Goldman Sachs’ employees in Russia are moving out of the country and into Dubai, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.

The move is driven by staff seeking to work from a different location, according to the report, citing a person familiar with the matter. The relocation is reportedly not meant to be permanent.

It wasn’t immediately clear how many people are currently working in the Russia office, nor transferring into Dubai.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

TikTok suspends some services in Russia

TikTok said in a statement posted Sunday it would suspend live streaming and new content on its platform in Russia.

It comes after President Vladamir Putin approved changes to Russian law on Friday that could punish anyone spreading “fake” news about the war in Ukraine with a prison sentence of up to 15 years.

Many independent and social media platforms have shut down operations in response to the law. Russian media regulators also blocked access to Facebook on Friday after the social media giant restricted access to several state-affiliated media outlet accounts. Twitter reportedly went dark shortly after.

“TikTok is an outlet for creativity and entertainment that can provide a source of relief and human connection during a time of war when people are facing immense tragedy and isolation,” wrote TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance. “However, the safety of our employees and our users remain our highest priority.”

China was one of three nations that abstained from voting on a resolution condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine in a United Nations Security Council vote in February.

In-app messaging services will not be affected by the suspension, TikTok added. The company also said it would begin piloting a feature that allows the platform to label content from state-controlled media.

— Samantha Subin 

Irpin mayor says eight people killed by Russian shelling

EDITORS NOTE – THIS POST CONTAINS GRAPHIC CONTENT:

Approximately eight people were killed after Russian forces began shelling on Irpin, the city’s mayor Oleksandr Markushyn said in a Facebook post.

Four of those killed were a family consisting of two adults and two children.

The attack came as Ukrainians attempted to flee the area, hoping to escape ongoing the violence. Russian forces have said they’re not targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure, but death tolls and damage continue to mount. Sunday’s attack could mean Russia is targeting escape routes, the New York Times reported.

Irpin is roughly 15 miles to the capital city of Kyiv.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

American Express suspends operations in Russia

American Express said Sunday it’s suspending operations in Russia in response to the country’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

It joins Mastercard and Visa, which announced Saturday they would also halt operations in Russia.

“One of our company values is to ‘Do What is Right,'” the company said in a statement. “This principle has guided us throughout this difficult crisis and will continue to do so, as we stand by our colleagues, customers, and the international community in hoping for a peaceful resolution to this crisis.”

Cards issued by Russian banks will no longer work outside of the country, the company said, adding that it would halt operations in Belarus. The company also said it previously paused relationships with banks in Russia that have been impacted by the U.S. and international sanctions.

“Over the past few weeks, we have been working hard to back our colleagues and customers in these countries,” American Express said. “While this decision will have an impact on them, we will continue to do what we can to support them.”

— Samantha Subin 

Ukrainians wait for trains to flee Lviv

People wait for a train to Poland at the railway station of the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Sunday, March 6, 2022.

— Adam Jeffery

IAEA says Russia has taken over Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine

The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine is under orders from the Russian commander whose forces took control of the site last week, according to a statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Ukraine informed the agency that regular staff are continuing to operate the plant. Any action of the plant management, including steps related to the technical operation of the six reactor units, will require prior approval from the Russian commander, the IAEA said.

Russian forces have also blocked some mobile networks and the internet, the agency said, citing the Ukrainian intelligence.

Russian troops began shelling the plant on Friday, prompting intense fears of a nuclear dangers.

Radiation levels remained normal as of the Sunday afternoon update.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

Blinken tells Moldova that U.S. will rally against Russian aggression ‘whenever and wherever’

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, reassuring the leader it would rally against Russian aggression “whenever and wherever” that might appear.

The Eastern European country of 2.6 million has been among the most vulnerable, as it’s not a member of NATO. The nation on Thursday submitted an application to become a member of the EU.

Some fear repercussions against the country, since Moscow-backed separatists have long held a space of land called Transnistria. Sandu said her administration hasn’t seen significant changes in the area where an estimated 1,500 Russian troops are deployed.

“In this region, of course, there is no possibility for us now to feel really safe or secure, especially when we watch what is going on, when we saw all those attacks and the war in Ukraine,” Sandu said, according to an interpretation.

So far, Moldova has been focusing on bringing in Ukrainian refugees. More than 250,000 people have crossed into the country since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the president said.

During the meeting, Blinken added the U.S. was providing $18 million in the next few years to “help strengthen and diversify Moldova’s energy sector.”

“Greater energy security is vital for your sovereignty,” he said.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

Russian POWs captured in Kyiv

11 Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces make a press statement on Saturday, March 5, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

— Adam Jeffery

U.S. and Poland are reportedly in talks to send fighter jets to Ukraine

The U.S. has begun talks with NATO ally Poland on a deal to facilitate the transfer of older, Soviet-era fighter jets from the Polish Air Force to its Ukrainian counterpart, NBC News reports.

Under the potential deal being discussed, Poland would donate its MIG fighters to Ukraine to aid in the battle against invading Russian forces, and the U.S. would help replace them with American-made F-16 jets.

“We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies,” a White House spokesperson told NBC News.

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urged more than 300 U.S. Congress members in a Saturday Zoom call to press for just such a transfer of jets and other military equipment from Poland and Romania. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, repeated the call in a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the Poland-Ukraine border.

In response, Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., wrote to President Joe Biden calling on his administration “to support aircraft transfers to Ukraine from Eastern European allies.” 

A White House spokesperson said the decision was ultimately up to Poland. The Polish embassy in Washington, D.C., did not respond to a request for comment from NBC News.

— Kenneth Kiesnoski

Blinken: U.S. and allies considering banning import of Russian oil, natural gas

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. and its allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine during an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.

“We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets,” he said. “That’s a very active discussion as we speak.”

The U.S. and its allies have not currently imposed sanctions on the country’s prominent energy industry, but Blinken said President Joe Biden has met with cabinet members about the subject.

After the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer. It’s also the largest exporter of crude oil to global markets.

— Samantha Subin

Ukrainians cross a destroyed bridge to flee Irpin

People cross on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian airstrike, while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine on Saturday, March 5, 2022.

— Adam Jeffery

Love and war in Kyiv: Ukrainian Territorial Defense wedding

Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Lesia Ivashchenko and Valerii Fylymonov at their wedding during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, at a checkpoint in Kyiv.

— Adam Jeffery

Russia detains at least 3,500 in nationwide protests

At least 3,500 people have been detained across Russia in a series of protests against President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s interior ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

“The detainees were taken to the territorial police departments for consideration, the issue of bringing them to justice is being decided,” the ministry wrote.

Approximately 5,200 people participated in the protests, according to the statement.

— Samantha Subin

More than 900,000 refugees have crossed into Poland

Poland’s border guard agency said more than 922,000 Ukrainians have crossed the border into the country since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24.

The agency added on Twitter that a record one-day number of 129,000 refugees entered the country on Saturday.

Poland, a nation of nearly 38 million people, has been accepting the largest number of Ukrainians so far. Overall, 1.5 million people have left Ukraine since the start of the war, the U.N.’s high commissioner for refugees said earlier in the day.

— Jessica Bursztynsky

Blinken: Ukraine has ‘plans in place’ if Zelenskyy is killed; U.S. investigating attacks on Ukrainian civilians

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine has “plans in place” if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is killed by Russia during the invasion.

“The Ukrainians have plans in place that I’m not going to talk about or get into any details on to make sure that there is what we would call continuity of government one way or another, and let me leave it at that,” he told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

Blinken also told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the U.S. has seen “very credible reports” of attacks on Ukrainian civilians, which could potentially be classified as war crimes.

“We’ve seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians which would constitute a war crime,” Blinken said. “We’ve seen very credible reports about the use of certain weapons.”

The U.S. is currently documenting the incidents and intends to support the “appropriate organizations” as they investigate, he said.

— Samantha Subin

Moody’s downgrades Russia’s credit rating on rising default risk

Moody’s cut its credit rating on Russia and kept a negative outlook, Reuters reported Sunday. The ratings agency cited sanctions that are restricting cross-border payments, including debt payments.

The ratings downgrade as “driven by severe concerns around Russia’s willingness and ability to pay its debt obligations,” the rating agency said, according to Reuters, which said default risks have increased.

Moody’s said the “likely recovery for investors will be in line with the historical average, commensurate with a Ca rating. At the Ca rating level, the recovery expectations are at 35 to 65%,” Reuters reported.

— Terri Cullen

Ukraine says Russia has violated the latest cease-fire in Mariupol

Ukrainian Interior Ministry advisor Anton Gerashchenko said Sunday that Russia had once again violated a cease-fire agreement in the city of Mariupol.

In a post on Telegram, Gerashchenko said the situation was a repeat of Saturday, when Russia was accused of continuing to attack the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha despite a cease-fire agreement.

“Second attempt to create a “green corridor” for civilians in Mariupol again resulted in shellings from the Russian side,” according to the post. “Everyone needs to understand that because occupational army kills civilians — there’s no security guarantees for ‘green corridors.’ “

The official did not say whether the planned evacuation of civilians from the city had been canceled.

The city had planned to transport residents from Mariupol to Zaporozhye, a city to the west, during a cease-fire agreed between 10 a.m. and 9 p.m. local time.

On Saturday, planned evacuations from the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha were canceled after Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister of Ukraine, said Russia had violated the cease-fire agreement, with fighting continuing in or around both cities.

— Katrina Bishop

Blinken: U.S. considering sending planes to Poland if needed

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that if Poland sends jets to Ukraine, to join the fight against Russia, the U.S. would consider sending replacement planes to Poland.

Speaking at a press conference in Moldova, he added that it was being considered “very, very actively.”

“We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes,” Blinken said.

“I can’t speak to a timeline but I can just say we’re looking at it very, very actively.”

—Katrina Bishop

Ukraine president: U.S. is preparing new sanctions; Russia plans to bombard Odessa

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the U.S. is preparing new support for Ukraine and new sanctions for Russia.

“I talk to the leaders of many countries every day and every night. There is no hour when Ukraine does not hear what help it will receive. For example, the United States is preparing new support for Ukrainians and new sanctions for Russia,” he said Sunday, according to a translation of a televised address.

Zelenskyy also said that Russia was planning to bombard Odessa, the third-largest Ukrainian city and a key port on Ukraine’s coast.  

“Russians have always come to Odessa, always felt in Odessa only warmth, only sincerity. And now what? Bombs against Odessa, artillery against Odessa, missiles against Odessa,” he added.

“It will be a war crime, it will be a historical crime.”

—Katrina Bishop

UK’s Boris Johnson outlines a six-point plan for Ukraine

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson has laid out a six-point plan for resolving the Ukraine crisis in a New York Times article, saying the time to act is now.

In the guest essay, entitled “Putin’s Act of Aggression Must Fail,” Johnson said it was no longer enough to share “warm platitudes” about the rules-based international order. 

“We are going to have to actively defend it against a sustained attempt to rewrite the rules by force and other tools, such as economic coercion. We must restore effective deterrence in Europe, where, for too long, the very success of NATO and of America’s security guarantee has bred complacency. What happens in Europe will have profound implications worldwide,” he wrote.

In the article, Johnson calls for allies to do the following:

• Mobilize an international humanitarian coalition
• Do more to help Ukraine defend itself
• Maximize the economic pressure on Putin’s regime
• Prevent any normalization of Putin’s actions in Ukraine
• Be open to de-escalation and diplomacy
• Strengthen “Euro-Atlantic security”

“Ukrainians have bravely defended their country. It is their valor that has united the international community. We can’t let them down,” Johnson added.

—Katrina Bishop

Over 1.5 million refugees have left Ukraine in last 10 days: UN

Filippo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, says that over 1.5 million refugees have left Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of the country began.

He described it as the “the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.”

WHO: Attacks on health care facilities in Ukraine have caused deaths, injuries

The World Health Organization confirms that there have been multiple attacks on health care facilities in Ukraine.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO, said on Twitter that the attacks had caused “multiple deaths and injuries.”

Ukraine war to last ‘months, if not years,’ UK deputy prime minister warns

U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said Sunday that the war in Ukraine could last months, if not years.

Speaking to Sky News, Raab said: “Our mission with our allies is to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine, and it’s going to take some time — we’re talking about months, if not years — and therefore we have to show some strategic stamina, because this is not going to be over in days.”

Mariupol officials say cease-fire to allow civilians to leave is planned for today

Mariupol City Council says that another temporary cease-fire is planned for Sunday to allow civilians to leave the Ukrainian city.

Fighting is due to stop between 10 a.m. and 9 p.m. local time. It was not immediately clear if the cease-fire was underway during this time.

The evacuation of civilians is scheduled to begin at midday, the city said in a post on Telegram.

“Following the route of the humanitarian corridor, you can leave the city by private transport, moving in a column of municipal transport (exclusively by bus),” the city said, according to a translation.

“At the head of the column will be accompanied by the Red Cross. We ask all drivers leaving the city to facilitate the evacuation of civilians as much as possible – take people with you, fill the transport as much as possible.”

The safe route — described as a “humanitarian ‘green’ corridor” — will go from Mariupol to Zaporozhye, a city to the west, with a number of stops along the way.

It comes after planned evacuations from Mariupol and Volnovakha were canceled Saturday due to fears of violence in the cities and on the routes out. Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister of Ukraine, said Saturday that Russia had violated the cease-fire agreement, with fighting continuing in or around both cities.

The cities have born the brunt of some of the most intense fighting in Ukraine over recent days.

Their location — in Ukraine’s extreme southeast corner, near the Russian border, the Sea of Azov and Crimea — makes them strategic targets for Moscow. If they fell to Russia, its troops could join forces with those in Crimea, a peninsula Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

—Katrina Bishop

Putin ‘forced to deny’ reports that martial law is coming to Russia

President Vladimir Putin was “forced to deny reports” that his government will impose martial law in order to stamp out Russian dissent against the war in Ukraine, according to the U.K. Defence Ministry.

Putin made the denial at an event in Moscow on Saturday local time. Rumors of impending martial law have swirled in Russia for days as the Kremlin tries to control opposition to the war in Ukraine.

Putin on Friday approved changes to Russian law that impose prison sentences of up to 15 years for “fake” news about the war in Ukraine.

“These steps likely reveal the extent of Russia’s concern over how the conflict in Ukraine has unfolded and its desire to hide this from the Russian population,” the U.K. ministry said in a Saturday intelligence update.

Demonstrators have protested the war in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia despite the threat of arrest or worse.

British newspaper the Guardian reported late last week that a bill was introduced in Russia’s legislature, the State Duma, that would forcibly conscript opposition protesters to fight in eastern Ukraine.

—Ted Kemp

Zelenskyy and Biden discuss security, financial support

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine spoke by phone with U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday evening Washington time, the White House said.

On Twitter, Zelenskyy referred to the conversation as part of a “constant dialogue.”

“The agenda included the issues of security, financial support for Ukraine and the continuation of sanctions against Russia,” the Ukrainian president said.

Biden initiated the call, the White House said.

Also on Saturday local time, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, briefly met at the Ukraine-Poland border to discuss Western efforts to support Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion of the country.

The pair of top diplomats discussed supplying additional weapons to Ukraine and efforts to impose sanctions on Russia to further isolate the country and damage its economy.

—Ted Kemp and Annie Palmer

Visa and Mastercard suspend operations in Russia, citing the invasion of Ukraine

Visa and Mastercard on Saturday said they will suspend all operations in Russia in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The move came after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an impassioned plea during a Zoom call with American lawmakers to restrict the companies’ credit card access in Russia.

Visa said effective immediately it will work to cease all Visa transactions within Russia in the coming days. Afterward, the company said, all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia won’t work within the Russian Federation.

“We are compelled to act following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the unacceptable events that we have witnessed,” Al Kelly, chairman and chief executive officer of Visa, said in a statement. “This war and the ongoing threat to peace and stability demand we respond in line with our values.”

Mastercard said it would suspend its network services in Russia. Cards issued by Russian banks won’t be supported by the Mastercard network, and Mastercard cards issued outside of the country will not work at Russian merchants or ATMs, the company said in a statement.

“As we take this step, we join with so many others in hoping for and committing to a more positive, productive and peaceful future for us all,” the company said.

Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank Rossii PAO, said the moves announced by Visa and Mastercard would not affect users of the cards it issues in Russia, Reuters reported, citing the Tass news agency.

“These decisions will not affect Sberbank’s Visa and Mastercards inside the country,” the Russian news agency quoted the bank as saying, Reuters said.

  — Terri Cullen

Zelenskyy calls on Ukrainian citizens to ‘go on the offensive’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged citizens of his country to “go on the offensive” against invading Russian troops.

“Every meter of our Ukrainian land won by protest and humiliation of the invaders is a step forward, a step towards victory for our entire state,” Zelenskyy said in a video posted on Telegram. “This is a chance to live.”

“Ukrainians! In all our cities where the enemy entered. Feel it. Go on the offensive,” he added.

Zelenskyy praised the heroism of residents in Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine that was taken by Russian forces this week. On Saturday, residents gathered to protest the Russian occupation as gunfire rang out, according to one video posted by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

Zelenskyy also addressed people in the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, located in southeastern Ukraine. He urged them to fight for Ukraine and reject Russian propaganda.

“Look what Russia has done,” Zelenskyy said. “It did it right in front of your eyes. Protect yourself! Otherwise, it will take your life, too.”

— Annie Palmer

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WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to brief reporters at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday at the State Department, as Russian forces continue their advance deeper into Ukraine.

Earlier in the week, the nation’s top diplomat warned that Russia’s human rights abuses in Ukraine are mounting by the hour. 

“They are destroying critical infrastructure, which provides millions of people across Ukraine with drinking water, gas to keep them from freezing to death, and electricity. Civilian buses, cars and even ambulances have been shelled. Russia is doing this every day, across Ukraine,” the top U.S. diplomat said in a speech delivered virtually to the United Nations Human Rights Council.

During his remarks, Blinken also floated the possibility of removing Russian from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The State Department on Monday announced it has suspended operations at its embassy in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus, and greenlit the voluntary departure of nonemergency members and their families from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.

“We took these steps due to security and safety issues stemming from the unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

The Biden administration’s actions mark the latest erosion of diplomatic ties with the Kremlin, which has been condemned by much of the international community and hit with crippling sanctions over its military aggression in Ukraine. The regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and is closely allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has also been sanctioned, most recently by the European Union.

Earlier Monday morning, talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations began at the Ukraine-Belarus border. The two countries agreed to meet with no preconditions, according to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

Blinken’s statement said the U.S. had “authorized the voluntary departure (‘authorized departure’) of non-emergency employees and family members” from the embassy in Moscow.

“The Department of State continually adjusts its posture at embassies and consulates throughout the world in line with its mission, the local security environment, and the health situation,” Blinken said.

“We ultimately have no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens, and that includes our U.S. government personnel and their dependents serving around the world,” he said.

The Ukrainian government and Russian state-controlled media on Friday exchanged fresh accusations of cease-fire violations near the country’s eastern border.

In a statement on Facebook, the Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation said 45 cease-fire violations had been recorded in eastern Ukraine on Friday as of 2 p.m. local time. The JFO alleged that 34 of those violations included the use of weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements, which Russia, Ukraine and pro-Moscow separatists signed in 2014 and 2015 to prevent a war in eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russian state-controlled media agency RIA claimed on Friday that Ukrainian government forces had launched three shelling strikes against Russian-backed separatists.

CNBC was unable to verify either report.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Thursday said its mission in Ukraine had reported almost 600 cease-fire violations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, substantially higher than the 153 violations reported during the previous period.

Meanwhile, Michael Carpenter, U.S. ambassador to the OSCE, said on Friday that the U.S. estimated Russia had amassed between 169,000 to 190,000 military personnel near Ukraine — up from 100,000 on Jan. 30.

Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine, announced on Friday that the DPR would begin an immediate evacuation of its residents to Russia amid intensifying shelling. Russian state media RIA also reported on the evacuation plans. CNBC has not been able to independently verify these claims.

The east of Ukraine, near the Russian border, has long been the scene of low-level fighting. The OSCE has regularly reports violations of the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine during the eight-year conflict, in which around 13,000 people have died.

The new allegations came after Russian officials reportedly circulated a document at the U.N. Security Council meeting on Thursday which Reuters reported made allegations that war crimes had been committed in Ukraine, and accused the Ukrainian government of “exterminating the civilian population” in the country’s east.

A U.S. official dubbed those accusations as “categorically false,” according to Reuters.

Russia ‘creating a pretext to justify invasion’

The U.S. has warned that Russia could use false assertions, including claims about the conflict in eastern Ukraine, as a pretext for an invasion.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the U.N. Security Council on Thursday that these assertions could include a fabricated terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians or a fake — or real — attack using chemical weapons, any of which could be blamed on Ukraine.

Moscow has repeatedly denied that it intends to invade Ukraine, and has claimed this week that its soldiers have begun to withdraw from their temporary posts at the border with Ukraine. However, multiple Western officials have cast doubt on those assertions.

Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the OSCE, added on Friday that over the past several weeks, the U.S. had acquired information that suggests Moscow is planning to stage a fabricated attack by Ukrainian military or security forces against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian-speaking people in separatist-controlled territory, to justify military action against Ukraine.

Both U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have also said they believe Russia is engaged in a “false flag” operation.

‘Moment of peril’

Blinken warned at the U.N. Security Council on Thursday that “this is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people,” adding that U.S. information clearly indicated that Russian forces were preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.

Blinken added that if Russia launched an invasion, its tanks and soldiers would be likely to advance on key targets including the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, which has a population of 2.8 million people.  

However, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the country’s Parliament on Friday: “We don’t undermine the threat in any case, but the possibility of escalation is considered to be relatively low regarding a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

Russia will conduct sweeping military exercises involving its nuclear forces on Saturday, Russian state media reported Friday.

Biden will meet with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the U.K., the EU and NATO on Friday to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.

Russian and American officials are expected to meet next week.

Russia has demanded that Ukraine never become a member of NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance, and wants the organization to scale back its presence in Eastern Europe. Both the U.S. and NATO have rejected those requests.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down 5.6 basis points at 1.918% by 4:10 p.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 7.8 basis points lower to 2.236%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

The Wall Street Journal reported midday Friday that U.S. officials expect a Russia attack in a few days.

President Joe Biden is expected to move more U.S. troops closer to Ukraine, NBC News reported. The Ukrainian government and Russian state-controlled media on Friday exchanged fresh accusations of cease-fire violations at the border.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking to the United Nations on Thursday warned that the situation is at a “moment of peril.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy has also been in focus for investors. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned on Thursday that without action on interest rates, inflation could become an even more serious problem.

New York Fed President John Williams on Friday said he didn’t see “any compelling reason to take a big step at the beginning,” but the central bank could decide later to speed up.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this market report.

It’s been a volatile week for global markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its worst day of the year Thursday, as investors continued to be on edge about the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Addressing the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an urgent appeal against a Russian invasion, after Western leaders rubbished the Kremlin’s claims of a drawback of troops and Ukraine accused pro-Russian separatists of shelling a civilian village.

Some selling pressure looked to be easing on Friday morning, on hopes that a meeting between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov next week may yield a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

But there remains a lot at stake, with Western leaders and NATO cautioning against taking Moscow at its word and President Joe Biden warning that Russia could be involved in a “false flag” operation.

Assets across the spectrum have been affected by the geopolitical tensions, including oil and natural gas, wheat, the Russian ruble and safe havens such as gold, government bonds, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

Philipp Lisibach, chief global strategist at Credit Suisse, told CNBC earlier this week that any confirmed de-escalation would give a boost to risk assets after a period of uncertainty and volatility.

“If we have, let’s say, a resolution in terms of the geopolitical issues that we currently face, I would imagine that the global economy takes a breather, risky elements of the market can certainly recover, the cyclicality and the value trade should probably do well, and European equities particularly that have come under pressure, we assume that they can continue to outperform, so we would certainly look into that angle specifically,” Lisibach said.

‘General geopolitical hedges’

Given the vast array of possible outcomes to the current standoff, investors have been reluctant to set forth a base case scenario, opting instead for careful portfolio hedging to mitigate the potential downside risks of a Russian invasion, while capturing some of the upside in the event of a de-escalation.

“We would rarely look to position for material geopolitical risk, as it’s so opaque. That said, we do have some general geopolitical hedges in the portfolio, principally gold and, depending on the source of the risk, some oil exposure, as well as, of course, some government bonds, though with reduced duration,” said Anthony Rayner, multi-asset manager at Premier Miton Investors.

Bhanu Baweja, chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank, argued earlier this week that outside of energy and Russian assets, markets had actually not priced in a great deal of risk.

“We have seen equities come off a little bit, but if you look at consumer durables — because that is the one sector or subsector that would definitely be impacted through weaker growth and higher inflation — in Europe that sector is doing much better than it is in the U.S.” he said.

Baweja added that U.S. high yield debt is also underperforming that of Europe, while the euro has remained relatively steady.

Markets are tracking the “playbook from 2014,” Baweja suggested, when Russia first invaded Crimea and the subsequent levying of sanctions against Russia through the summer.

“Through that period what really happened was some parts of CEE FX got impacted, oil rose a little bit in the first iteration, came down in the second one, so not a lot happened in stocks, so really it became quite a local event,” Baweja told CNBC on Tuesday.

“This time it seems much more serious, but I don’t think investors want to completely upend their way of thinking and probably want to look for hedges, rather than completely changing their core portfolio.”

FX seen as the best hedge

In terms of hedging, Baweja suggested that with equity and bond volatility already high due to central bank speculation, investors should look to foreign exchange markets, where volatility is still relatively low.

“Similar to 2014, I would be looking at CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) FX, places like dollar-Pole (zloty) or dollar-Czech (koruna), for hedges,” he said.

“Russian assets themselves have moved a lot so they along with energy are pricing a lot of risk, which also means if the situation becomes better, then you really shouldn’t see global equities seeing massive relief from that, you should see Russian assets going up and energy coming down.”

If the situation escalates, Baweja suggested hedging through FX rather than buying defensive stocks or favoring U.S. assets over Europe.

“If we have to do it within equities, we think DAX and European banks are probably the best hedges,” he added.

While equity markets in Russia and around the world continue to look sensitive to geopolitical developments, the ruble has remained relatively robust around the 75 mark against the dollar, despite some volatility.

Luis Costa, head of CEEMEA FX and rates strategy at Citi, told CNBC on Thursday that flows into the ruble are likely to render it the most resilient Russian asset class, with high energy and gas prices pointing to strong current account surpluses in Russia.

“And let’s not forget Russia used to buy FX, they used to buy dollars as a derivative on the fiscal law, and they stopped the purchase of dollars about a month ago in order to support the currency,” Costa said.

“This is making natural flows in Ruble even more positive for the currency, so we think that – in the whole asset array of Ruble risk, of Russia risk, credit, rates, bonds and FX – FX will continue to be the most resilient part of the puzzle here.”

The Ukraine-Russia crisis is at a pivotal moment. Ukraine accused pro-Russian separatists of attacking a village near the border. In the U.S., meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at the United Nations, made an urgent appeal against an invasion.

For months, the U.S. and its Western allies have watched a steady buildup of Kremlin forces along Ukraine’s border with Russia and Belarus. The increased military presence mimics Russia’s playbook ahead of its 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, a peninsula on the Black Sea, which sparked international uproar and triggered sanctions against Moscow.

President Joe Biden has warned Russian leader Vladimir Putin of extraordinary and crippling economic sanctions if the Kremlin proceeds with an attack on Ukraine, Russia’s ex-Soviet neighbor.

Here are some key news items:

Tensions weigh on stocks{

Dow suffers worst day of 2022 on Russia-Ukraine tensions

Stocks suffered steep declines Thursday as traders fretted over Ukraine-Russia tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points, or 1.8%, for its worst one-day decline of 2022. The S&P 500 slid 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9%.

Traders broadly dumped riskier assets, such as stocks, in favor of traditional safe havens like bonds and gold.

The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped more than 8 basis points to 1.96% (yields move inversely to prices). Gold futures, meanwhile, jumped to their highest level since June.

“In the short term, the market is just moving to the indications that it’s seeing out of Russia,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “That negativity and that additional cloud over the market definitely has a lot of weight right now.”

—Fred Imbert

‘I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one,’ Blinken says{

‘I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one,’ Blinken says during UN exchange with Russian offiical

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Russia during an unexpected Thursday address at the United Nations Security Council to de-escalate tensions on Ukraine’s border immediately and engage in dialogue and diplomacy.

“Let me be clear, I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one,” Blinken told the international forum.

“The Russian government can announce today with no qualification, equivocation or deflection, that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly, state it plainly to the world and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their various can hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table,” Blinken said, following an address made by Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Vershinin.

“In the coming days, the world will remember that commitment or the refusal to make it,” America’s top diplomat added.

Blinken, who embarked on a scheduled trip to Munich alongside Vice President Kamala Harris earlier on Thursday, flew instead to New York at the request of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

Thomas-Greenfield told reporters on a call Thursday morning that she requested Blinken address the international forum because the “evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.”

– Amanda Macias

Russian official calls accusations ‘baseless'{

Russian official denies plans to attack Ukraine, calls accusations ‘baseless’

A Russian official on Thursday downplayed before the United Nations Security Council that Moscow was preparing for an attack on Ukraine, echoing messaging delivered for months by the highest levels of the Kremlin.

During his address, Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Vershinin, said accusations from the United States and its allies of a mounting Russian invasion are “baseless.”

“Resist the temptation to play to the cameras and do not make this meeting of ours into a circus,” Vershinin said. He added that Russia does not intend to attack Ukraine and added, “I think we’ve had enough speculation on that.”

Vershinin’s comments to the international forum came as Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unexpected trip to United Nations headquarters in New York.

“We have long ago clarified everything and explained everything and the announced date of the so-called invasion is behind us. And so, therefore, my advice to you is to not present yourself in an awkward situation,” Vershinin added, referencing leaked U.S. intelligence that the planned invasion would commence Feb. 16.

– Amanda Macias

U.S. officials head to Middle East to discuss potential energy issues

The White House said Thursday that U.S. officials traveled to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the past week in order to discuss potential energy market pressures stemming from a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

State Department Special Envoy for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein and Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk both met with Saudi officials, according to National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne. The statement did not detail who exactly within the Saudi government met with the small U.S. delegation.

President Joe Biden has warned that if Russia were to move into Ukraine, energy markets could see a bi gimpact. Biden has also pledged that a major new Russian-German gas pipeline would be halted.

The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was finished in September of last year, but it has yet to transport any actual gas.

Separately, McGurk reaffirmed to both the Saudis and Emiratis U.S. support against Iranian-enabled missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attacks. He also discussed the need to combine pressure on the Houthis in Yemen in order to end the war there.

– Amanda Macias

Nation’s highest-ranking military officer intensifies outreach with regional partners

The Pentagon said Thursday that the nation’s highest-ranking military officer has continued to update NATO members and allies on the deteriorating security situation in Ukraine.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley spoke Thursday with Latvia’s Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. Leonids Kalnins and Estonia’s Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. Martin Herem in separate phone calls.

“The leaders discussed a range of issues, including security environment in the Baltic region and Eastern Europe,” Milley’s spokesman U.S. Army Col. Dave Butler wrote in a readout of the calls.

In the past week, Milley has spoken four times to Ukrainian Armed Forces Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny as well as counterparts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania and the United Kingdom.

Milley has also spoken to Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov and NATO Military Committee chair Adm. Rob Bauer.

Last month, Milley told reporters at the Pentagon that Russia’s posture along Ukraine’s border was unlike anything he has seen during his four-decade military career. He said the Russians have deployed air forces, naval forces, special forces, cyber electronic warfare, command and control, logistics engineers and other capabilities along Ukraine’s border.

“Given the type of forces that are arrayed, the ground maneuver forces, the artillery, the ballistic missiles, the air forces, all of it packaged together. If that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and it would result in a significant amount of casualties,” Milley said on Jan. 28.

“It would be horrific,” he added.

– Amanda Macias

Dow suffers worst day of 2022 on Russia-Ukraine tensions

Stocks suffered steep declines Thursday as traders fretted over Ukraine-Russia tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points, or 1.8%, for its worst one-day decline of 2022. The S&P 500 slid 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9%.

Traders broadly dumped riskier assets, such as stocks, in favor of traditional safe havens like bonds and gold.

The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped more than 8 basis points to 1.96% (yields move inversely to prices). Gold futures, meanwhile, jumped to their highest level since June.

“In the short term, the market is just moving to the indications that it’s seeing out of Russia,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “That negativity and that additional cloud over the market definitely has a lot of weight right now.”

—Fred Imbert

Oil prices dip as traders watch Russia-Ukraine crisis, Iran nuclear talks

Oil prices settled lower on Thursday, putting crude on track for its first negative week in nine.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been driving prices, but traders attributed Thursday’s move to progress on the Iran nuclear talks. A deal could bring more than 1 million additional barrels per day to the global market.

“The Iranian wildcard and Ukraine stand-off are likely to come to a head in the next few days, the outcomes of which will determine whether or not higher energy prices are here to stay,” said Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 1.44% to settle at $91.76 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude ended the day at $92.87 per barrel, for a loss of 2%.

— Pippa Stevens

Paul threatens to block unanimous approval of Senate resolution backing Ukraine

Sen. Rand Paul threatened Thursday to block unanimous passage of a Senate resolution pledging support to Ukraine.

The Kentucky Republican wants the nonbinding measure to say it is not an authorization to send American troops into Ukraine if Russia invades its neighbor. He said he could object to the resolution’s unanimous approval if senators do not change its language or allow him to offer amendments to it.

“We believe that it should say ‘nothing in this resolution is to be construed as an authorization of war, and nothing in this resolution is to be construed as authorizing introduction of troops into Ukraine,’ and we’ll see,” Paul said on Thursday.

Lawmakers from both parties have signed on to the so-called sense of the Senate resolution. Its passage would not bring about any concrete action.

The resolution in part says that the Senate “encourages the President that, should any further invasion or other malign activity to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine occur by Russia, the United States Government should exhaust all tools at its disposal to impose significant costs on the Russian Federation to restore peace in Europe.”

— Jacob Pramuk

‘I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one,’ Blinken says during UN exchange with Russian offiical

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Russia during an unexpected Thursday address at the United Nations Security Council to de-escalate tensions on Ukraine’s border immediately and engage in dialogue and diplomacy.

“Let me be clear, I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one,” Blinken told the international forum.

“The Russian government can announce today with no qualification, equivocation or deflection, that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly, state it plainly to the world and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their various can hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table,” Blinken said, following an address made by Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Vershinin.

“In the coming days, the world will remember that commitment or the refusal to make it,” America’s top diplomat added.

Blinken, who embarked on a scheduled trip to Munich alongside Vice President Kamala Harris earlier on Thursday, flew instead to New York at the request of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

Thomas-Greenfield told reporters on a call Thursday morning that she requested Blinken address the international forum because the “evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.”

– Amanda Macias

Russian ruble weakens against U.S. dollar

The ruble — the official currency of the Russian Federation — weakened in value against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as perceptions of geopolitical tension worsened.

The currency market can indicate “how much risk is actually priced in” to financial markets, Dennis DeBusschere, president and chief market strategist at 22V Research, said.

The ruble spot is quoted as U.S. dollars to ruble, so when the spot rate rises, it means the ruble value is falling. The ruble spot rate rose 1.6% on Thursday.

— Hannah Miao

Russian official denies plans to attack Ukraine, calls accusations ‘baseless’

A Russian official on Thursday downplayed before the United Nations Security Council that Moscow was preparing for an attack on Ukraine, echoing messaging delivered for months by the highest levels of the Kremlin.

During his address, Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Vershinin, said accusations from the United States and its allies of a mounting Russian invasion are “baseless.”

“Resist the temptation to play to the cameras and do not make this meeting of ours into a circus,” Vershinin said. He added that Russia does not intend to attack Ukraine and added, “I think we’ve had enough speculation on that.”

Vershinin’s comments to the international forum came as Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unexpected trip to United Nations headquarters in New York.

“We have long ago clarified everything and explained everything and the announced date of the so-called invasion is behind us. And so, therefore, my advice to you is to not present yourself in an awkward situation,” Vershinin added, referencing leaked U.S. intelligence that the planned invasion would commence Feb. 16.

– Amanda Macias

European stocks retreat

Stocks are broadly lower in Europe as the trading day winds down oversees.

The FTSE 100, tracking the largest stocks traded in London, has lost roughly 1.3%. The German DAX fell 1%. In comparison, Asian indexes were more mixed on the day, with stocks rising in Hong Kong and Korea but falling in Japan.

Exchange traded funds that track European stocks are similarly under pressure. The Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund is off by 1.2%.

The VanEck Russia ETF remains down by nearly 5%.

–Jesse Pound

Oil prices slip despite Russia-Ukraine tensions

Oil prices moved lower on Thursday, despite the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Still, prices remain elevated.

Crude has surged above $90 per barrel on fears that any disruption in supply could push prices above the $100 mark. Demand has bounced back in the wake of Covid-19 while output has remained constrained, pushing oil to the highest level since September 2014.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, dipped 2.9%, or $2.74, to $90.92 per barrel around 11 a.m. on Wall Street. International benchmark Brent crude traded 2.6% lower at $92.31 per barrel.

Several factors could be keeping a lid on prices, including progress on the Iran nuclear talks, as well as oil’s 21% gain this year.

— Pippa Stevens

Ukraine announces partnership with UK and Poland

U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said during a news conference in Kyiv that Britain would boost its defense aid to Ukraine by £20 million ($27 million), raising the overall aid amount to £100 million.

Ukraine also announced a trilateral partnership between the U.K., Poland and Ukraine which will focus on defense, cyber and energy concerns. In the joint statement, the parties said, “Poland and the UK will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.”

Truss noted during the news conference that the action taken “demonstrates that the United Kingdom is willing and ready to stand shoulder to shoulder with allies across Eastern and Central Europe.”

— Brad Howard

Biden: Russian invasion threat is ‘very high,’ U.S. believes Kremlin engaged in ‘false flag’

President Joe Biden warned that the threat of Russia invading Ukraine is “very high,” telling reporters that an attack could come within “the next several days,” NBC News reported.

Biden, speaking outside the White House, also said the U.S. has reason to believe the Kremlin is engaged in a so-called false flag operation, wherein Russia would try to pin a provocative action on its adversaries as a pretext for an invasion.

But Biden maintained that he still believes there is a diplomatic path out of the conflict.

“That’s why I tasked [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken to go to the United Nations to make the statement today,” the president said.

Asked if he will call Russian President Vladimir Putin, Biden said he had no plans to do so.

— Kevin Breuninger

Russia lays out security demands

The Russian government on Thursday published its response to U.S. proposals on security guarantees over Ukraine, stating that “demands to withdraw troops from certain regions on Russian territory are unacceptable and undermine the prospects for reaching real agreements.”

Moscow also insisted that “the West should stop pumping weapons” into Ukraine and called for a withdrawal of Western troops, bases and military activity in countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, according to state media.

Several Western countries have sent military hardware to Ukraine to help it defend itself from a potential Russian attack.

Russia repeated earlier claims on Thursday that it had no intention of invading Ukraine.

Russia has requested several other security guarantees relating to Ukraine from the U.S. and NATO — the world’s most powerful military alliance — including demands that Ukraine never be permitted to become a member of the organization.

Last month, the U.S. delivered a response to Russia’s proposals, in which it repeated previous refusals of those demands.

 — Chloe Taylor

Stocks slip as developments in Ukraine weigh on investor sentiment

U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday as investors eyed developments in Ukraine, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 300 points, or 0.9%, and the S&P 500 down about 1%.

The news from Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield that Russia appears to be preparing for an “imminent invasion” seemed to be a modest negative for the market in premarket trading. Dow futures were down fewer than 100 points before her comments but extended their losses to more than 200 points.

Shares of energy and defense companies, which could potentially benefit from a conflict in Ukraine, were slightly higher in early trading. The VanEck Russia ETF fell nearly 5%

However, oil prices were actually lower in early trading. Oil futures spiked late last week after U.S. and U.K. officials warned of a potential Russian invasion in the coming days, as a conflict could lead to Western Europe no longer purchasing the country’s gas.

-Jesse Pound

‘False flag operation’

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told PA Media on Thursday that the attack on a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine was a “false flag operation designed to discredit the Ukrainians.”

“We fear very much that that is a thing we will see more of over the next few days,” he added.

The U.S. warned on Wednesday that Russia may use false claims about the conflict in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for invasion.

Around 13,000 people have died in a war that has been raging for eight years between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region of Donbas.

– Chloe Taylor

Russia expels second-highest U.S. diplomat from the country

The State Department said Thursday that U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission to Russia Bart Gorman, the second-highest U.S. official in Russia, was expelled from the country.

A department spokesperson described the removal of Gorman, who still has a valid visa and had not yet completed his diplomatic mission, as an “unprovoked” and “escalatory step.”

The spokesperson said the Biden administration was considering its response to Gorman’s expulsion.  The official said the U.S. mission to Russia is now staffed at levels well below the Russian mission to the United States.   

“We call on Russia to end its baseless expulsions of U.S. diplomats and staff and to work productively to rebuild our missions. Now more than ever, it is critical that our countries have the necessary diplomatic personnel in place to facilitate communication between our governments,” the spokesperson added.

– Amanda Macias

Ukraine reportedly says shelling has stopped

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has said that shelling in the east of the country has stopped as of 1 p.m. local time, according to Reuters.

It had earlier reported multiple artillery attacks which hit a school and a kindergarten in villages near the border, that it attributed to Russian-backed separatists.

Russian state media claimed on Thursday that Ukraine had committed artillery attacks on territory held by pro-Moscow rebels — but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters that the shelling was a “false flag operation designed [by Russia] to discredit the Ukrainians.”

The east of Ukraine, near the Russian border, has long been the scene of low-level fighting between pro-Moscow rebels and Ukrainian government forces.

– Chloe Taylor

Secretary of Defense pushes for diplomatic resolution with Putin

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated Thursday that the United States and its allies would still prefer a diplomatic resolution with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Of course, one thing that Mr. Putin says he wants to do is to engage in more dialogue. As we have said all along, we would welcome that,” Austin said following a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers.

“As his deeds thus far tend to indicate, it will be clear to the entire world that we started a war with diplomatic options. It will be Mr. Putin who will bear the responsibility for the suffering and the immense sacrifice that ensues,” Austin said, calling on Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s borders.

– Amanda Macias

Western officials cast doubt on Russian claims of troop pullback

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday that there had been no evidence of Russian forces leaving the border, noting that intelligence suggested that Moscow was in fact building up more troops and equipment close to Ukraine.

“We will not let out guard down — we will stay vigilant,” she said.

Meanwhile, U.K. Foreign Minister Liz Truss wrote in The Daily Telegraph newspaper on Thursday that there is “currently no evidence the Russians are withdrawing from border regions near Ukraine.”

Their comments came after NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Wednesday that contrary to Moscow’s claims, “it appears Russia continues their military buildup.”

The Kremlin released video footage on Wednesday which it claimed showed military units returning to their permanent deployments after completing exercises near the border. CNBC has not been able to verify the footage.

– Chloe Taylor

Ukraine accuses pro-Russia rebels of ‘provocation’ after shelling of kindergarten

Ukraine has accused pro-Russian separatists in the country’s east of opening fire on civilian territory, damaging a kindergarten.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement on Thursday that the shelling of a kindergarten in the village of Stanytsia Luhanska was “a big provocation” by pro-Russian forces.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation said pro-Russian separatists had shelled 22 settlements in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with civilians and military personnel sustaining injuries.

Kyiv’s accusations come after Russian-controlled media agency RIA claimed earlier on Thursday that Ukrainian forces had shelled territory held by pro-Moscow separatists. Kiev quickly denied the reports, which CNBC has been unable to verify.

– Chloe Taylor

Ukraine crisis reaches a ‘crucial moment,’ U.S. ambassador to the U.N. says

The mounting Russian threat to Ukraine has reached a critical point, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations said.

“The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to address the U.N. Security Council at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday.

The ambassador’s comments follow Ukrainian accusations that Russia attacked a village in eastern Ukraine, CNBC’s Amanda Macias reports.

– Jacob Pramuk

Ukraine has claimed pro-Russian separatists in the country’s east opened fire on civilian territory on Thursday, damaging a kindergarten.

“The shelling of a kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska by pro-Russian forces is a big provocation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday on Twitter. “It’s important that diplomats and the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] remain in Ukraine, [as] their monitoring activities are an additional deterrent.”

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense later said that shelling had stopped as of 1 p.m. local time, according to Reuters.

Earlier Thursday, the Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation said on Facebook that pro-Russian separatists had shelled 22 settlements in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with civilians and military personnel sustaining injuries.

“A total of 32 shells were fired by terrorists,” the statement said. “The shelling damaged kindergartens and communal infrastructure — half of the village was left without electricity.”

Three of the kindergarten’s employees were injured, the JFO added, and children and caregivers had been evacuated.

Separately, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that a school building with pupils and teachers inside was damaged by shelling on Thursday. No one was reported to be hurt in the attack. 

The ministry also alleged that Russian mercenaries had opened fire in several other locations in eastern Ukraine using artillery and grenades, with it claiming Russian occupation forces had committed 29 cease-fire violations by 11 a.m. local time.

“Ukrainian defenders opened fire in order to stop the enemy’s fire activity,” the JFO said in its statement.

It released photos and video footage of the kindergarten it said had been hit by ammunition. CNBC has been unable to verify the reports.

‘Crucial moment’

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a last-minute change of travel plans on Thursday following reports of the violence, and will speak at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine before traveling to Munich.

“The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said in a statement Thursday. “This is a crucial moment.”

Kyiv’s accusations come after Russian-controlled media agency RIA claimed earlier Thursday that Ukrainian forces had shelled territory held by pro-Moscow separatists. Kyiv quickly denied the reports, which CNBC has been unable to verify.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told PA Media on Thursday that the attack on the kindergarten was a “false flag operation designed to discredit the Ukrainians.”

“We fear very much that that is a thing we will see more of over the next few days,” he added.

The east of Ukraine, near the Russian border, has long been the scene of low-level fighting. The OSCE has regularly reported violations of the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine during the eight-year conflict, in which around 13,000 people have died.

‘False claims’ could precede invasion, U.S. warns

Reports of heightened violence on Thursday follow warnings from the U.S. that Moscow could use false claims about the conflict as a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.

“Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen Russian officials and Russian media plant numerous stories in the press, any one of which could be elevated to serve as a pretext for an invasion,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement Wednesday.

He also reiterated that Russia’s claims about a partial pullback of its troops from the border had not been verified by the United States.

“We are doing everything we possibly can to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis the Kremlin has needlessly precipitated. But those efforts will be effective only if the Russian Federation is willing to deescalate,” he said. “To be very, very clear, we have not seen that. In fact, we have seen the opposite. In recent weeks, and even in recent days, more Russian forces — not fewer — are at the border, and they are moving, concerningly, into fighting positions.”

A senior Biden administration official told reporters Wednesday night that as many as 7,000 troops have joined those already near the border in recent days, after Western officials accused Moscow of sending “mixed signals” over its position on Ukraine.

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 soldiers, tanks, missiles and even fresh blood supplies at the Ukrainian border, but has repeatedly denied it is planning to invade.

The Kremlin released video footage on Wednesday which it claimed showed military units returning to their permanent deployments after completing exercises near the border, however multiple Western officials have said that Russia’s troop count at the border is in fact increasing, not decreasing.

Security guarantees

Russia has requested several security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO — the world’s most powerful military alliance — over recent weeks, including demands that Ukraine never be permitted to become a member of the organization and that the NATO presence in Eastern Europe be scaled back.

Last month, the U.S. delivered a response to Russia’s proposals, repeating previous refusals of those demands.

The Russian government on Thursday published its latest response to those proposals, stating that “demands to withdraw troops from certain regions on Russian territory are unacceptable and undermine the prospects for reaching real agreements.”

Moscow also insisted that “the West should stop pumping weapons” into Ukraine and called for a withdrawal of Western troops, bases and military activity in countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, according to state media.

Russia repeated earlier claims that it had no intention of invading Ukraine.

Russia’s Duma (parliament) voted on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognize two Moscow-backed breakaway regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine as independent republics.

Both Ukraine’s government and Blinken said Wednesday that such a move would effectively amount to a Russian withdrawal from the Minsk agreements.

Those accords — designed to end a separatist war in eastern Ukraine — were signed by representatives for Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and pro-Russian separatists in 2014 and 2015.

Correction: Early reports of shelling in eastern Ukraine Thursday were not independently verified by CNBC, contrary to an earlier version of this story.

WASHINGTON – More than 3,000 American soldiers who were recently deployed to Poland are working with authorities there to prepare for a potential wave of people fleeing Ukraine if Russia invades the country, a Pentagon spokesman said Monday.

“Assistance with evacuation flow is something that they could do, and could do quite well,” said Defense Department spokesman John Kirby. “And they’re going to be working with Polish authorities on what that looks like and how they would handle that.”

Kirby noted that the American troops are versatile and capable of many missions. But his admission that preparations are underway for a potential influx of refugees from Ukraine offered the first real glimpse of how U.S. soldiers might be used in the region.

Kirby reiterated Biden’s pledge that American troops would not be fighting in Ukraine.

This latest tranche of soldiers, approximately 3,000 troops who arrived in Poland over the past four days, are part of a larger group of 82nd Airborne Division troops that President Joe Biden ordered to deploy to the NATO-allied country as part of the joint defense alliance.

Both the United States and its European allies made concrete preparations Monday to defend NATO members and protect civilians as military action by Russia grew increasingly likely.

Later this week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will visit Poland himself, part of a broader trip to Europe that will include a NATO ministerial meeting on Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “continues to advance his readiness” for an invasion, said Kirby, and is “doing all the things you would expect him to do” if he were to decide to take military action.

There are more than 100,000 Russian troops stationed on their borders with Ukraine. Russia claims it is merely engaged in military exercises with its ally, Belarus.

But Kirby said it “strains credulity” to believe that so many soldiers would be deployed and positioned all around Ukraine if this were indeed an exercise.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken ordered the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv to close Monday, and directed embassy staff to relocate to Lviv, a city in western Ukraine.

“We are in the process of temporarily relocating our Embassy operations in Ukraine from our Embassy in Kyiv to Lviv due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Blinken said in a statement.

“I have ordered these measures for one reason — the safety of our staff — and we strongly urge any remaining U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately,” said Blinken.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said later Monday that the Biden administration feels its decision to relocate the U.S. embassy in Ukraine is “absolutely necessary.”

“It is a distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action,” Price said.

He noted, however, that the U.S. has still not concluded that an invasion is inevitable. “We believe that there still remains a window to resolve this” through diplomacy, Price said.

Price added that “meticulous planning” preceded the move to Lviv, nearly 300 miles west of Kyiv.

U.S. intelligence officers who briefed allies last week reportedly said that a Russian invasion may begin on Wednesday Feb. 16.

On Sunday, national security advisor Jake Sullivan did not deny the report, first published by Politico. But he said the United States “cannot perfectly predict the day.”

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday ordered the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv closed and directed embassy staff to relocate to Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, citing the “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces” on Ukraine’s border.

“We are in the process of temporarily relocating our Embassy operations in Ukraine from our Embassy in Kyiv to Lviv due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Blinken said in a statement.

“I have ordered these measures for one reason — the safety of our staff — and we strongly urge any remaining U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately,” Blinken said.

The announcement came several hours after reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested to President Vladimir Putin that Moscow use diplomacy to obtain concessions from the West, after U.S. officials warned a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen “any day now.”

Reuters reported Monday that Lavrov had said to Putin that the Kremlin should seek a diplomatic route toward procuring the security guarantees it has demanded, as tensions mount over its military activity at the Ukrainian border.

Russia is demanding that Ukraine never be permitted to become a NATO member, and has said it wants the organization to roll back its presence in Eastern Europe.

U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen “any day now.” “That includes this coming week,” he said.

Security officials in Washington, London and Ukraine told Politico on Friday that U.S. intelligence officers had briefed allies last week that the invasion may begin on Wednesday Feb. 16. However, Sullivan said on Sunday that officials “cannot perfectly predict the day.”

On Tuesday, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau — the current chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe — is due to convene talks in Moscow between Lavrov and the OSCE’s chairperson-in-office in Ukraine, Mikko Kinnunen.

Ukraine on Sunday filed a request for a meeting with Russia under the Vienna Document — a treaty signed by 56 member states aimed at maintaining military transparency across Europe.

An estimated 30,000 Russian troops are currently engaged in a 10-day program of military drills with neighboring Belarus, which also shares a border with Ukraine.

The drills, widely seen as a display of strength by Russia, come as more than 100,000 soldiers, tanks, missiles and even fresh blood supplies have been moved to Russia’s border with Ukraine.

Moscow has insisted it has no plans to invade Ukraine.

‘Ukrainians are pushed to panic’

Ukraine has also accused Russia of creating a sea blockade, according to the BBC, with officials saying the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea have been blocked by Russian forces, which are set to begin naval drills this week.

Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine’s south, in 2014.

Speaking to CNBC’s Silvia Amaro on Monday, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K., Vadym Prystaiko, said that there was intel that suggested a Russian invasion on Wednesday was possible.

“This is specifically made public to tell the aggressor that we know about the plans, and if they don’t happen it could be because the public already knew that they are plotting something,” he said.

However, he added that there was also intel that implied alternative invasion timeframes.  

“But regardless of the intel, the problem is that Ukrainians are pushed to panic,” Prystaiko said. “Airlines are canceling flights, money is being withdrawn by investors. Ukrainians feel that they have been abandoned.”

Prystaiko said that the Ukrainian government had not yet had a response from Moscow regarding its request for a meeting.

“But that’s not the only way we are trying to get understanding with Russia,” he said. “We have our own negotiations — it’s not like we’re relying on what the West is doing for us, we are doing our part.”

He added Ukraine was in a “very difficult” and “very unfair” situation, noting the country was still living with the concessions it made under the Vienna Document after Russia annexed Crimea.

“But we are still [using the processes of] the same document to try to find a way to diplomatically defuse the situation,” he said. “It’s not just this [situation]. We’ve been in a war for seven years.”

Diplomatic efforts continue

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a call on Sunday.

“President Biden reaffirmed the commitment of the United States to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” White House officials said in a press release.

“President Biden made clear that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its Allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. The two leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence in response to Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.”

It came after a call between Biden and Putin on Saturday, in which Biden reiterated that the U.S. and its allies and partners would “respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.”

Biden told Putin that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and “diminish Russia’s standing,” the White House said in a statement, with the U.S. president adding that although the U.S. and its allies were prepared to engage in diplomacy, they were also “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

U.S. allies, including the U.K. and France, have also been in talks with Russian ministers in recent weeks in a bid to resolve the tensions diplomatically.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned last week that Europe is “on the edge of a precipice,” adding that “things are as dangerous as I have seen them in Europe for a very, very long time.”

On Monday, finance ministers of the G-7 nations — comprised of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. — issued a statement pledging financial support for Ukraine, vowing to “collectively impose economic and financial sanctions which will have massive and immediate consequences on the Russian economy” should Moscow engage in any further military aggression toward Ukraine.

Bob Menendez, chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, told CNN last month that the committee was devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia that would be “crippling to their economy” as a method of defending Ukraine.

German ministers have also said Russia will face “massive” economic consequences if it takes any aggressive action against Ukraine, and British lawmakers have publicly taken the same stance.

However, while some Western countries have sent military hardware to Ukraine, the German government has refused to send weapons to the country. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to travel to Kyiv on Monday to meet Zelenskyy, and will meet Putin in Moscow on Tuesday.

Scholz reiterated on Sunday that a Russian attack on Ukraine would lead to “hard reactions and sanctions that we have carefully prepared and that we can put into effect immediately,” Reuters reported.

Berlin was not expecting “concrete results” from the talks, according to the news agency, but Scholz would emphasize that the Kremlin “should not underestimate the unity between the European Union, United States and Britain.”

Jan Friedrich Kallmorgen, founder and managing partner of Berlin Global Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that it made strategic sense for Biden to be leading the diplomatic effort.

“Putin doesn’t take international organizations like the [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] or the EU so seriously, he likes to talk bilaterally, he likes to be in the limelight, he likes [French President Emmanuel] Macron and Scholz visiting him, and the big prize of course is the United States,” Kallmorgen said.

He added that the crisis was likely to trigger a “remarkable shift” toward more robust foreign policies in Germany and other Western nations, which would likely include greater commitments to NATO.

“Putin deserves a trans-Atlantic award for bringing [the West] closer together than ever since 1999,” he told CNBC.

“There’s very clear resolve, we’re all singing from the same hymn sheet. I think there’s a very coordinated, very robust answer that’s the sanctions, which I think are credible, and there’s also the willingness to increase NATO presence in NATO countries if needed.”

Blinken said at a news conference after the meeting that North Korea was “in a phase of provocation” and the three countries condemned the recent missile launches.

“We are absolutely united in our approach, in our determination,” Blinken said after his talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong.

He said the countries were “very closely consulting” on further steps they may take in response to North Korea, but didn’t offer specifics.

The three released a joint statement calling on North Korea to engage in dialogue and cease its “unlawful activities.” They said they had no hostile intent toward North Korea and were open to meeting Pyongyang without preconditions.

Hayashi later told Japanese reporters the three ministers had “very fruitful” discussion on the North. He declined to give details on additional measures they may take.

North Korea has a long history of using provocations such as missile or nuclear tests to seek international concessions. The latest tests come as the North’s economy, already battered by decades of mismanagement and crippling U.S.-led sanctions, is hit hard by pandemic border closures.

Many see the tests as an attempt to pressure President Joe Biden’s administration into easing the sanctions. The Biden administration has shown no willingness to do so without meaningful cuts to the North’s nuclear program, but it has offered open-ended talks.

North Korea has rebuffed U.S. offers to resume diplomacy, saying it won’t return to talks unless Washington drops what it says are hostile polices. The North bristles at both the sanctions and regular military exercises the U.S. holds with South Korea.

The tests also have a technical component, allowing North Korea to hone its weapons arsenal. One of the missiles recently tested — the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile — is capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam. It was the longest-distance weapon the North has tested since 2017.

North Korea appears to be pausing its tests during the Winter Olympics in China, its most important ally and economic lifeline. But analysts believe North Korea will dramatically increase its weapons testing after the Olympics.

The recent tests have rattled Pyongyang’s neighbors in South Korea and Japan. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who helped set up the historic talks between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and former President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019, said last month that the tests were a violation UN Security Council resolutions and urged the North to cease “actions that create tensions and pressure.”

The Security Council initially imposed sanctions on North Korea after its first nuclear test in 2006. It made them tougher in response to further nuclear tests and the country’s increasingly sophisticated nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

China and Russia, citing the North’s economic difficulties, have called for lifting sanctions like those banning seafood exports and prohibitions on its citizens working overseas and sending home their earnings.

Blinken arrived in Hawaii from Fiji, where he met with Acting Prime Minister Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum and other Pacific leaders to talk about regional issues, especially the existential risk posed by climate change. It was the first visit by a U.S. secretary of state to Fiji since 1985.

He started his Pacific tour in Australia, where he met his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan. The four nations form the “Quad,” a bloc of Indo-Pacific democracies that was created to counter China’s regional influence.

Hayashi and Chung held a separate bilateral meeting Saturday for about 40 minutes before seeing Blinken. Japan’s Foreign Ministry said they reaffirmed the importance of cooperating together and with the United States to respond to North Korea and to achieve regional stability.

The ministry said they also “frankly” exchanged views on ongoing disputes between the two countries, including wartime Korean laborers and sexual abuse of Korean women forced into sexual servitude by Japan’s imperial army.

Chung proposed the two countries accelerate diplomacy to find solutions to the disagreements, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Blinken also met separately with Chung. He met Hayashi earlier this week in Australia.

___

Associated Press writers Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo and Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.

President Joe Biden has issued a warning that U.S. citizens should leave Ukraine immediately as tensions with Russia over its military activity continue to intensify.

“American citizens should leave. … Leave now,” Biden told NBC News’ Lester Holt on Thursday night. “We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly.”

Russia began a 10-day program of military exercises with its neighbor Belarus on Thursday. NATO estimated 30,000 Russian troops were taking part, marking Moscow’s biggest military deployment in Belarus since the Cold War.

The drills, widely seen as a display of strength by Russia, come as around 130,000 soldiers, tanks, missiles and even fresh blood supplies have been moved to its border with Ukraine, according to NBC News. Russia is demanding that Ukraine never be permitted to become a member of the NATO military alliance and has said it wants the organization to roll back its presence in Eastern Europe.

Russia has insisted it has no plans to invade Ukraine.

Ukraine also accused Russia on Thursday of creating a sea blockade, the BBC reported. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reportedly said the Sea of Azov was completely congested, while the Black Sea was being blocked by Russian forces as they prepared for naval drills next week.

Despite the mounting tensions, Biden on Thursday ruled out sending U.S. troops into Ukraine, saying there was no scenario in which he could see this happening.  

“That’s a world war when Americans and Russians start shooting at one another, we’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been in,” he said.

Biden added that it would be difficult to position troops in Ukraine even for the purpose of evacuating U.S. citizens.

“How do you do that? How do you even find them?” he said. “I’m hoping that if [Russian President Vladimir Putin is] foolish enough to go in, he’s smart enough not to do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens.”

Invasion ‘could happen at any time’

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a news conference in Melbourne, Australia, that the government was continuing to “draw down” its embassy in Ukraine amid “very troubling signs of Russian escalation.”

These signs included Moscow moving more troops to the Ukrainian border, Blinken said, reiterating the call for U.S. citizens to immediately leave Ukraine.

“We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics.”

The Winter Olympics are currently being held in China and are scheduled to run through to Feb. 20.

Although Russia has denied it is planning to invade Ukraine, the U.S., the U.K. and other countries have sent military hardware to Kyiv to help it defend itself in case of military aggression.

Europe ‘on the edge of a precipice’

Western countries, including the U.S., U.K. and France, have been in talks with Russian ministers in recent weeks in a bid to resolve the tensions diplomatically.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested on Thursday, however, that the situation remained fragile.

“I think today, 10th of February 2022, we stand on the edge of a precipice and things are as dangerous as I have seen them in Europe for a very, very long time,” he warned. “It is up to Vladimir Putin now to disengage and to de-escalate, and the way forward is diplomacy.”

U.S. lawmakers have said they are devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia as a method of defending Ukraine that would be “crippling to [the Russian] economy.” British and German ministers have also warned there will be economic consequences for Moscow if it takes any aggressive action against Ukraine.

During a press briefing last week, analysts at think tank Chatham House told reporters that 24% of Ukrainians surveyed in recent weeks said they were ready to physically defend Ukraine, on top of those who had already joined its growing volunteer army.  

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that any military confrontation with Russia would result in a “full scale” war on European soil.

Last Friday, Ukraine’s Kuleba told CNBC that the government had been briefed by the U.S. that Russia may use a fake video as grounds for an invasion.

“If you ask me if there is anything Russia couldn’t do in order to provoke the war, my answer would be no,” he said. “Everything is possible, and we should take every risk into account.”

Putin has accused the U.S. of using Ukraine as a tool to “contain Russia.”

— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this article.

Tensions between Russia and the West remain high after the U.S. refused to cede to President Vladimir Putin‘s demands, but analysts say it’s not too late for him to back down from a military confrontation with Ukraine.

The world is awaiting Russia’s response after Washington refused to bow to Moscow’s demands over Ukraine, including that the country is never admitted to NATO, and that the military alliance’s deployments in Eastern Europe are rolled back.

While Russia considers its next move, there remain heightened concerns that Putin could be poised to give Russian troops a greenlight to invade Ukraine.

Despite insisting repeatedly that it has no plans to launch a military incursion, Russia has stationed around 100,000 troops at various locations along its border with Ukraine, as well as massing troops inside neighboring Belarus — its ally — as well.

There have been scores of diplomatic talks between Russian and Western officials in recent weeks aimed at breaking a deadlock over Ukraine and dialing down the potential for a military confrontation, but so far it is unclear which side will blink first.

How far Putin will go — and whether he will back down — when Russia’s pride and geopolitical interests are at stake (or at least seen to be in Moscow) is uncertain.

Putin can back down, if he wants

Putin is known for his strongman image in Russia, and with the oppression of opposition figures and independent media, the Kremlin is able to control the domestic narrative when it comes to the president.

As such, analysts say that Putin has room to maneuver without losing face, but only if he chooses to do so.

Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC that, “yes, Putin has cultivated a strongman image, but he has sufficient control of the image and narrative-setting ability that means de-escalation will not be perceived as weakness by the majority of the Russian public.”

Ironically, Hess argued, the more military hardware that NATO deploys to Eastern Europe, and the more the West threatens Russia with sanctions, the harder it is for Putin to backtrack.

“Putin can still back down without major domestic repercussions, though the more material the West commits to Eastern Europe in general does arguably make it somewhat harder,” he said.

“Major new sanctions would also make it far more difficult, and less desirable from Putin’s point of view, though so far the West has stressed these will be a response to Russian action, not pre-emptive (the argument gets more complex around Nord Stream 2 of course).”

Hess added that there could be “elite constituencies” within Russia’s military and intellectual far right that prefer war with Ukraine, “but Putin’s system is fairly resilient to policy disagreements among the elite.”

Unsurprisingly, the West’s faith in Russia is very low given its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and support for pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region in the east of the country, a move which has further fomented distrust.

Many analysts believe that a smaller incursion in the Donbas region by Russia is possible — or even likely. This would both save face and destabilize Ukraine, while potentially gaining pro-Russian territory. Hess said an attempted annexation of the Donbas was his baseline scenario.

“I think Putin can respond to a breakdown in talks or other ‘negative’ policy outcome (from the Kremlin’s point of view) by limiting major action to the Donbas without prompting the more dramatic sanctions responses the West has laid out,” Hess said.

Little appetite for war

Ostensibly, Russia’s goals are to maintain its sphere of influence over former Soviet states and to stop an eastward expansion of the Western military alliance NATO. Russia says it has no intention of invading Ukraine and just wants to protect its own security interests.

Putin has described the fall of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest catastrophes of the 20th century and has extolled the unity of Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the two countries’ shared historical, linguistic and cultural ties.

This apparent “closeness” of the two countries could be a reason why there appears to be little appetite for war among the Russian public.

“There was no societal demand for Putin to play as rough as he does to begin with … there was no demand for escalation at all — so any de-escalation would be welcomed by Russians,” Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian affairs journal Riddle, told CNBC on Monday.

“It goes without saying that official rhetoric and media can make almost any resolution of the conflict a victory for Putin, so it would not challenge his position at home substantially, at least among the Russian public,” he noted.

However, Barbashin said there was a schism between a Russian public reluctant to see a war with Ukraine (particularly if it could lead to “Russian boys” dying during any confrontation) and the military and conservative elites in Russia.

“For the military and generally Russia’s conservative elites, backing down now would not make sense, [as] none of the major goals have been reached. They tend to expect Putin to continue to stay firm or even up the ante,” he said.

Hess agreed that, unlike the buildup to the 2014 annexation of Crimea when Russian public sentiment supported an incursion, this time around there had been less anti-Ukraine propaganda.

“I don’t think the Russian public is baiting for war, nor has the Kremlin propaganda focused on demonizing Ukrainians to anywhere near the same extent as it did in 2014, even if it remains very hostile to the government in Kyiv,” Hess noted.

‘Step back from the brink’

For now, the world is left guessing how Putin will react to the U.S. responses to Russia’s demands, hand-delivered to the Kremlin last week by the U.S. ambassador in Moscow. While the exact details of the U.S. response to Russia were not published, it was met with a frosty response in Moscow.

Nonetheless, both sides continue to talk. U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken is due to speak with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday, while other Western leaders also look to persuade Putin to dial down tensions this week. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he would tell Putin to “step back from the brink” over Ukraine when the two leaders speak later this week.

Not everyone believes Putin is ready to roll over when it comes to Ukraine, however.

Ian Bremmer, founder and director of Eurasia Group, said he believes Putin is prepping the Russian public for an incursion by demonizing the Ukraine and the West.

“Putin controls the narrative at home (especially given power of state media), so it’s not a really a question of what he can sell,” told CNBC on Monday. “But this also makes it easier for him to make the decision to escalate — he’s convinced Russians that war is coming and it’s all the fault of Ukraine and NATO.”

Bremmer said Putin would lose credibility on a global stage if he backs down, particularly among certain quarters, such as countries traditionally allied with Russia.

For this reason, he said, “it’s important for Putin to have escalatory options that aren’t just about invading Ukraine.” These could include sending a permanent military presence and nuclear weapons to Belarus, “or even establishing bases in the Western hemisphere (Cuba, Venezuela) as the deputy foreign minister has suggested,” Bremmer added.

The Kremlin has given its response to U.S. security proposals that were hand-delivered to Moscow, saying it believes Russian views have not been taken into account.

While President Vladimir Putin has read the documents and will take time to study them, “it cannot be said that our views were taken into account, or that a readiness to take our concerns into account was demonstrated,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday, Reuters reported.

Likening current tensions in Europe as being reminiscent of the Cold War, Peskov said that it would take time for Moscow to review the U.S. response and that “it would be silly to expect a response on the next day.”

Talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken are expected in the next few days, however, with Blinken noting Wednesday that he believed discussions would continue “after Moscow has had a chance to read the paper and is ready to discuss next steps.”

The reaction from the Kremlin comes a day after the U.S. delivered its written responses to Russia’s security demands — including that Ukraine never be allowed to join the U.S. and Europe’s military alliance NATO, and that the organization rolls back its deployments in Eastern Europe.

In its response, which was given to the Kremlin by the U.S. ambassador in Moscow, the United States repeated its previous refusal to concede to such demands, sticking instead to its commitment to NATO’s “open-door” policy.

At the same time, Blinken told reporters in a press briefing that the U.S. response also offered Russia “a serious diplomatic path forward, should Russia choose it.”

“We’re open to dialogue, we prefer diplomacy, and we’re prepared to move forward where there is the possibility of communication and cooperation if Russia de-escalates its aggression toward Ukraine, stops the inflammatory rhetoric, and approaches discussions about the future of security in Europe in a spirit of reciprocity,” he said.

‘No positive reaction’

Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning to invade Ukraine despite having amassed around 100,000 troops and military hardware at various points along its border with Ukraine. Tensions have been high with its neighbor since 2014, when it invaded and annexed Crimea. It has also supported a pro-Russian uprising in eastern Ukraine, provoking low-level fighting between separatists and Ukrainian troops ever since.

Putin has said Russia can place its troops wherever it likes on its territory, and Russia has accused the West of stoking hostilities and hysteria in the region.

The U.S. and NATO are not prepared to take Russia at its word that it will not invade Ukraine. NATO has placed its forces on standby and reinforced its positions in Eastern Europe, with more ships and fighter jets being sent to the region. The U.S., meanwhile, has put thousands of troops on heightened alert, meaning they are ready to be deployed to the region if the crisis escalates. 

Lavrov said Thursday that the U.S. response “allows us to expect the start of a serious conversation but on secondary issues.”

“On the main question, there’s no positive reaction in this document,” he said, according to the Interfax news service.

He reportedly stated that the main issue for Russia is “the inadmissibility of further expansion of NATO to the East and the deployment of strike weapons that could threaten the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Before Russia had received the U.S. response, Lavrov said he had made it clear to Blinken “that any further disregard for the legitimate concerns of the Russian Federation, which are associated primarily with the continued military exploration of Ukraine by the United States and its NATO allies against the background of the largescale deployment of the alliance’s forces and weapons near our borders, would have the most serious consequences.”

At the time, Lavrov had said such consequences were avoidable “if Washington positively responds to our draft agreements on security guarantees. We expect to receive a written reaction to each paragraph from the U.S. side next week.”

Analysts agree that all eyes are now on Putin as the guessing game continues over what he will do next. Summing up that sentiment, Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, put it in a research note Thursday:

“All eyes [are] on Putin, will he raise or fold in this high stakes poker game?”

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, which is responsible for advancing American strategic interests in Europe and Eurasia, told CNBC Thursday that he expects Putin to continue to build pressure on Ukraine and its allies “until somebody cracks.”

“In other words, somebody gives in on one of his demands, whether it’s a promise that Ukraine could never join NATO or promised withdrawal from certain countries, or things like that,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble.

If no one cracks, Hodges said, “then I believe he will take the next step, which would be a new attack,” warning that Putin was already appearing to prepare for an offensive.

“So what he does next is continue this exercise he’s doing in Belarus, where you’ve got thousands of Russian troops joining up with the troops from Belarus for an exercise, I don’t envision that those capabilities are going to be leaving anytime soon. … You’ve got more ships of the Russian Navy that are moving from the Baltic Sea towards, I believe, the Black Sea. We’ll know [more about] that in a few days,” he said.

He noted that a concentration of naval capability in these areas would enable Putin to conduct amphibious operations on the Black Sea coasts west of Crimea, and also in the Sea of Azov (which is connected to the Black Sea). 

“I think those are the most likely type of actions that are going to happen. Not a massive assault all around Ukraine, but probably more limited attacks, that would reduce his own casualties, but still would enable him to accomplish his objective, which is to show he can go wherever he wants, and to undermine [the] Ukrainian government,” Hodges said.

What happens next?

The U.S. and its European allies in NATO will be closely watching for Russia’s reaction in the coming hours and days.

Blinken said the U.S., which has led international crisis talks and diplomatic efforts to deescalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine, had “fully coordinated with Ukraine and our European allies and partners” when drafting its responses to Russia, and “sought their input and incorporated it into the final version delivered to Moscow.”

He added that NATO will deliver to Moscow its own paper with ideas and concerns about collective security in Europe — and that the paper fully reinforces the U.S. response, and vice versa. 

The White House had shared its response paper with Congress but Blinken said the administration would not be releasing the document publicly “because we think that diplomacy has the best chance to succeed if we provide space for confidential talks. We hope and expect that Russia will have the same view and will take our proposals seriously.”

He noted that there were still areas where there is potential for progress, “including arms control related to missiles in Europe, our interest in a follow-on agreement to the New START treaty that covers all nuclear weapons, and ways to increase transparency and stability.”

Blinkin also said the U.S. had addressed the possibility of “reciprocal transparency measures” regarding the strength and readiness of forces in Ukraine, and measures to increase confidence regarding military exercises and maneuvers in Europe.

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. delivered a document to Moscow on Wednesday that lays out “a serious diplomatic path forward” should Russia decide against invading Ukraine.

Blinken said the contents of the document were shared with NATO allies and that President Joe Biden was intimately involved with its crafting. U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan handed over Washington’s written responses.

The development came as NATO warned that Russia continued to increase its military presence along the Ukraine border. U.S. officials, including Biden, have said they expect the Kremlin to launch an attack on the former Soviet nation.

Blinken said the document sets forth areas and ideas of how Washington and Moscow can work to advance collective security interests.

“Right now, the document is with them and the ball is in their court,” Blinken said. “Whether they choose the path of diplomacy and dialogue or whether they decide to renew aggression against Ukraine. We’re prepared either way.”

The U.S. will not publicly release the document in order to provide space for confidential bilateral talks, the secretary of State added.

For months, the West has watched as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent more than 100,000 forces with advanced equipment to areas along Ukraine’s border.

The Kremlin has denied that the troop deployment is a prelude to an attack and has instead characterized the movement as a military exercise.

Russian officials have meanwhile repeatedly called on the U.S. to prevent an eastward expansion of the NATO military alliance.

Russia has also demanded that the U.S. “shall not establish military bases” in the territories of any former Soviet states that are not already members of NATO, or “use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”

The U.S. and NATO have previously said that such a request from the Kremlin cannot be accommodated.

Since 2002, Ukraine has sought entry into NATO. The group’s Article 5 clause states that an attack on one member country is considered an attack on all of them.

Biden told reporters Tuesday that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would radically alter European security. “If he were to move in with all those forces, it’d be the largest invasion since World War II. It would change the world,” Biden said.

The U.S. and European allies have repeatedly issued threats to impose swift and severe economic consequences if Putin orders an attack on Ukraine.

“He’s [Putin] never seen sanctions like the ones I promised,” Biden said last week when asked about potential U.S. economic measures. The president said “a disaster” awaits Russia should an attack on Ukraine occur, a development that intelligence agencies warned last week could happen within a month.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that Russia’s military presence has increased along the border with Ukraine as well as in Belarus.

“Russia continues its military buildup, and we see also more troops not only in and around Ukraine but also now in Belarus. Russia is in the process of deploying thousands of combat troops, hundreds of aircraft, S-400 air defense systems and a lot of other very advanced capabilities,” Stoltenberg said from NATO’s headquarters in Brussels.

“These are highly capable combat troops, and there is no transparency on these deployments. So of course, this adds to our concerns. It adds to the tensions, and it shows that there is no de-escalation,” Stoltenberg said.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon placed 8,500 U.S. servicemembers on “heightened alert” to deploy to Europe should NATO activate a response force.

The 8,500 troops represent America’s contribution to the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, or NRF, whose activation requires approval of all 30 NATO members.

The latest revelations come as the State Department issued an order Sunday evening for eligible family members of personnel at its embassy in Kyiv to leave the country due to the deteriorating security conditions.

The State Department also recommended on Sunday that all U.S. citizens in Ukraine depart the country immediately, citing Russia’s continued military buildup on the border. Blinken reiterated on Wednesday that the security conditions in Ukraine are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice.

“Our message now for any Americans in Ukraine is to strongly consider leaving using commercial or other privately available transportation options,” Blinken said.

“If Russia invades civilians including Americans still in Ukraine could be caught in a conflict zone between combat forces. The U.S. government may not be in a position to aid individuals in these circumstances,” he added.

Crisis talks aimed at averting a military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine appear to be faltering, as Western allies prepare for a possible conflict between the neighbors that could be “painful, violent and bloody.”

Western allies are preparing for some kind of military confrontation, with NATO putting more forces on standby and looking to reinforce Eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets. The U.S. Department of Defense, meanwhile, said Monday that about 8,500 American troops are on heightened alert and awaiting orders to deploy to the region in the event that Russia does invade Ukraine.

The 8,500 troops are based in the U.S. and would be part of the NATO Response Force if that group is activated, the Pentagon said.

The NATO Response Force is a 40,000-strong, multinational unit made up of land, air, maritime and special operations forces that NATO can deploy quickly, wherever needed. Its overarching purpose is “to provide a rapid military response to an emerging crisis,” NATO says. It has not yet been activated.

Pentagon press secretary John F. Kirby stated Monday that the American forces being put on standby would be in addition to the significant combat-capable U.S. forces already based in Europe “to deter aggression and enhance the alliance’s ability to defend allies and defeat aggression if necessary.”

“Secretary [of Defense Lloyd] Austin has placed a range of units in the United States on a heightened preparedness to deploy, which increases our readiness to provide forces if NATO should activate the NRF or if other situations develop,” the press secretary said. 

If it is activated, Austin’s order would enable the U.S. to rapidly deploy additional brigade combat teams, along with units specializing in logistics, aviation, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, transportation and more, Kirby noted. 

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, warned Monday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a “painful, violent and bloody, business” and a “disastrous step.”

“The intelligence is very clear that there are 60 Russian battle groups on the border of Ukraine. The plan for a lightning war that could take out Kyiv is one that everybody can see. We need to make it very clear to the Kremlin that that would be a disastrous step,” he told reporters.

Europe in the back seat

But as the U.S. and NATO officials plan for a potential conflict, Europe seems to have been conspicuously absent from many of the proceedings leading up to this point.

Many last-ditch negotiations aimed at preventing tensions between Russia and Ukraine from spilling into conflict have gone ahead without the European Union, leading Eurasia Group’s Emre Peker and Alex Brideau to believe that Europe has been “sidelined on its own turf.”

“The EU has failed to unequivocally rally behind a strategy to counter Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture against Ukraine, and will struggle to do so going forward. That will relegate Brussels to the sidelines as the U.S. and Russia discuss the future of Europe’s security architecture,” they noted Monday.

Several European officials have complained that the EU has been sidelined during discussions on Ukraine between the U.S. and Russian officials; Ukraine has also complained that it has also been left out of talks in which it is the central focus and concern.

But part of the European Union’s difficulties when it comes to dealing with its bellicose neighbor Russia is that there is division within the bloc over how to deal with Moscow. Some countries take a more dovish stance toward Russia (such as France and Germany), whereas others, such as those in Eastern Europe or those that used to be part of the Soviet Union like the Baltics, are more hawkish.

In addition, the EU has an awkward reliance on Russia for a large chunk (around 40%) of its natural gas supplies, meaning that Russia can use this resource, particularly in winter, to its own advantage. Germany in particular is in a difficult situation because the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is yet to be approved, will transport gas directly into Germany and is designed to boost Russian gas supplies to the Continent.

Another part of the problem is that there is no consensus in the EU over its future security landscape. Some countries, like France, are pushing for more strategic autonomy from the U.S. and NATO, while others (again those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics where NATO troops are deployed) are more comfortable with remaining under the aegis of the military alliance.

Europe won’t act ‘unless there’s an invasion’

“Barring invasion, Europe can’t and won’t mobilize,’ Eurasia Group’s analysts warned, predicting that the EU “will struggle to bridge internal divides between Russia hawks and doves over Ukraine tensions.”

“These dynamics will put yet another nail in the coffin of EU defense integration, and exacerbate the bloc’s split into pro-U.S. and more-Europe camps on security,” Peker and Brideau noted, effectively meaning that “U.S.-Russia talks will decide the future of Europe’s security architecture, which the EU will follow.”

Crisis talks between Western officials and Russia have been taking place for a number of weeks now, and follow high-profile discussions between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Concerns over Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine grew amid reports that it had deployed around 100,000 troops and military hardware to various positions along its border with Ukraine. There have also been some intelligence reports that it is planning to invade.

Russia has repeatedly denied these reports.

In talks with the U.S. and NATO, Russia sought legal assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, as Putin seeks to stop any eastward expansion of the military organization, and pushes NATO to roll back deployments in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. So far, the U.S. and NATO have refused such demands, among others.

As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the military alliance is not obliged to defend it, posing the question over just how far the U.S. and EU are willing to go to defend the country — one that aspires to both membership of the EU and NATO. Russia vehemently opposes these aspirations.

While the U.S., Europe and NATO have all talked tough when it comes to Russia, vowing “massive consequences” as U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said Sunday, if Russia does invade, so far it looks like more sanctions on key Russian sectors would be the primary response deployed by the international community.

While the U.S. and U.K. have sent military equipment to Ukraine to help it defend itself, the response from EU nations has been more nuanced — Germany has refused to provide Ukraine with direct military support and reportedly blocked Estonia from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine.

NATO has itself been bolstering its military capabilities in Eastern Europe by putting forces on standby and deploying more ships and fighter jets to the area. Some European countries, including Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands, have announced their intention to send military hardware to bolster NATO defense capabilities.

The Kremlin accused the U.S. and its allies on Monday of escalating East-West tensions by announcing plans to boost NATO forces and the U.S. decision to evacuate the families of diplomats from its embassy in Ukraine.

Europe preparing for conflict

The EU said Monday that it will continue to stand by Ukraine’s side and, despite preparations for conflict, diplomats in Europe continue to push for peace.

A flurry of diplomatic meetings has continued in the region this week, with the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting on Monday and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holding talks with foreign affairs ministers from Finland and Sweden.

On Monday afternoon, Biden held a video call with a number of European leaders and NATO chief Stoltenberg.

In a statement, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, said the meeting “aimed at coordinating the collective response to the aggressive behaviour of Russia with regards to Ukraine. Leaders shared the assessment on the seriousness of the situation. They wished for diplomacy to succeed but are undertaking preparations for all eventualities.”

It added that it was “working on a wide array of sectoral and individual sanctions in the case of further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine,” as well as working with EU states and allies on preparedness, from energy to cybersecurity.

On Monday, the EU announced a new financial aid package for Ukraine of 1.2 billion euros ($1.36 billion) in the form of an emergency financial assistance package and 120 million euros in additional grants. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the aid was aimed at helping Ukraine “address its financing needs due to the conflict,” adding: “Let me be clear once more: Ukraine is a free and sovereign country. It makes its own choices. The EU will continue to stand by its side.”

European leaders are also looking to try their hand at bringing Russia and Ukraine closer together this week, with political advisors from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany due to hold “Normandy format” talks on eastern Ukraine in Paris on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Such talks have in the past produced the so-called Minsk Agreements — peace deals to stop the ongoing lower-level conflict in eastern Ukraine — but the accords did not stop ongoing skirmishes and some fighting in the Donbass region between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops, and both sides have accused the other of flouting the agreements.

As such, there is not much expectation that the Normandy talks will be fruitful. Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said that the “Normandy and Minsk processes are dead,” with Moscow showing what he said was “zero interest” in the peace talks continuing.

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Russian counterpart Friday that the Kremlin could defuse tensions and concerns about a potential invasion by removing an extraordinary deployment of troops and equipment away from Ukraine’s borders.

The meeting between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came as Western officials, including President Joe Biden, have said they expect Moscow to launch an incursion into Ukraine. U.S. intelligence has indicated Russia could attack within a month’s time.

The U.S. is not convinced of Russia’s claim that it is not preparing for an invasion of its ex-Soviet neighbor, Blinken said.

“If Russia wants to begin to convince the world that it has no aggressive intent toward Ukraine, a very good place to start would be by deescalating by bringing back and removing these forces from Ukraine’s borders,” Blinken told reporters following a 90-minute meeting with Lavrov in Geneva.

“We and all of our allies and partners are equally committed to making sure we are doing everything possible to make clear to Russia that there will be a swift, severe and united response to any form of aggression by Russia directed to Ukraine,” Blinken added.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have repeatedly called on the U.S. to prevent an eastward expansion of NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance.

Russia has also demanded that the U.S. “shall not establish military bases” in the territories of any former Soviet states that are not already members of NATO, or “use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”

Since 2002, Ukraine has sought entry into NATO, where the group’s Article 5 clause states that an attack on one member country is considered an attack on all of them.

When asked about those demands on Friday, Blinken said the U.S., as well as the NATO alliance, would not negotiate the terms of member entry with the Kremlin.

Before heading to Switzerland, Blinken met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv in order to reaffirm Washington’s commitment to a sovereign Ukraine. The nation’s top diplomat then traveled to Berlin to meet with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine.

“These are difficult issues we’re facing. Resolving them won’t happen quickly. I certainly don’t expect we’ll solve them in Geneva,” Blinken said while in Berlin. “But we can advance our mutual understanding. And that, combined with deescalation of Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders — that can turn us away from this crisis in the weeks ahead,” he added.

Blinken’s trip comes on the heels of multiple high-stakes discussions between U.S. and European officials and their Russian counterparts. Following those meetings, the Biden administration accused Russia of preparing a “false flag operation” to use as a prelude for an invasion of Ukraine. Russia has denied any such preparations.

“We are now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine,” a senior State Department official said on a conference call with reporters Tuesday.

“President Putin created this crisis by enacting 100,000 Russian troops along Ukraine’s borders. This includes moving Russian forces into Belarus over the weekend. This is neither an exercise nor a normal troop movement. It is a show of strength designed to cause or give a false pretext for a crisis as Russia plans for a possible invasion,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to share details of Blinken’s trip, added.

Earlier this week, Biden said that he expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to order an invasion of Ukraine, and warned that “a disaster” awaits Russia if that happened.

Biden’s remarks came after intelligence agencies warned such an attack could happen within a month.

“My guess is he will move in, he has to do something,” Biden said Wednesday when asked about the Russian forces positioned along Ukraine’s border.

“It is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine. Our allies and partners are ready to impose a severe cost on Russia and the Russian economy,” Biden said during his second solo news conference since he took office.

“And I think he’ll regret having done it,” Biden added.

In a letter to all U.S. diplomats, sent Thursday and obtained by NBC News, Blinken said interim findings from the intelligence community had found “plausible explanations for many — but not all — reports of potential anomalous health incidents,” using the Biden administration’s preferred term for Havana Syndrome.

“These findings do not call into question the fact that our colleagues are reporting real experiences and are suffering real symptoms,” Blinken says. “I have heard those firsthand in my discussions in Washington and around the world with those afflicted.”

For more on this story, go to NBC News.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken faces more tough negotiations with his Moscow counterpart on Friday, as Western officials, including President Joe Biden, warn that Russia could launch a military incursion into Ukraine within a month.

Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva. And, according to Russia’s top envoy to the EU, there’s hope the U.S. diplomat will bring with him a response to a series of Russian demands made to the West.

“Hopefully so, yes,” Vladimir Chizhov, the permanent representative of Russia to the EU, told CNBC on Thursday when asked whether the talks could ease current tensions.

“I would hope that Secretary Blinken comes to Geneva not empty-handed, but with a reply, which was promised to the Russian proposals on security guarantees, the ones that were presented to the United States and to NATO countries,” he said.

Last month, Russia set out several main demands on Ukraine, among other security matters, in a draft security pact. In the document, it demanded that the U.S. must prevent further eastward expansion of NATO and must not allow former Soviet states to join the alliance.

Russia also demanded in the draft pact that the U.S. “shall not establish military bases” in the territories of any former Soviet states that are not already members of NATO, or “use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”

The U.S. and NATO have already described demands that Ukraine not be admitted to NATO, or that it roll back NATO deployments in Eastern Europe, as “non-starters.”

“It was promised by his principal deputy, [U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy] Sherman,” Chizhov said when asked what would happen if Blinken doesn’t deliver a reply.

“If the U.S. government needs additional time, then this can be discussed. But we do expect a written reply.”

Relations between the Kremlin and its Western counterparts hit a low in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Moscow has supported a pro-Russian uprising in the eastern part of Ukraine, where low-level fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian troops has continued ever since.

Now, U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia could be weighing a potential invasion of the Ukraine, with the Kremlin moving 100,000 troops close to the border. Biden, during a news conference Wednesday, also said he expected Russian President Vladimir Putin to order an invasion.

“My guess is he will move in, he has to do something,” said Biden, who also warned of a “disaster for Russia” and a “severe cost on Russia and the Russian economy” if the Kremlin did launch an attack.

Blinken departed Kyiv on Wednesday following meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. While in Kyiv, Blinken worked to reaffirm America’s support and commitment to Ukraine as the West awaits Putin’s next move.

“It is up to Ukrainians and no one else to decide their own future and the future of this country,” Blinken said before meeting behind closed doors with Zelenskyy.

‘Too long a shot’

As tensions with Russia escalate, Western officials have said they do not understand why Moscow has moved military troops closer to Ukraine. Speaking earlier this week, Germany’s Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock said there is “no understandable reason” for the Russian military buildup.

Some experts believe Putin is trying to pressure European officials to approve a new gas pipeline from Russia — Nord Stream 2.

“No, I would say that’s too long a shot,” Ambassador Chizhov told CNBC, refuting the idea.

Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas, with about 40% of its natural gas imports coming from Moscow. But approval of the new pipeline has divided Europe’s capitals. Some argue it will increase Europe’s dependence on Russia even more, while others say it is purely commercial project.

The discord over Nord Stream 2 has also surfaced in the context of new European sanctions. The bloc is considering additional action against the Kremlin if it invades Ukraine and some EU capitals want Nord Stream 2 to feature in these.

When asked if Russia would be upset with potential sanctions involving Nord Stream 2, Chizhov said: “Of course it would upset. [But] more than anybody else it would upset European consumers.”

— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt and Amanda Macias contributed to this article.

The State Department said Blinken will travel to Kyiv on Wednesday to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, move on to Berlin and then meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday. The hastily arranged trip aims to show U.S. support for Ukraine and impress on Russia the need for de-escalation.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki underscored the urgency. “We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine. And what Secretary Blinken is going to go do is highlight very clearly there is a diplomatic path forward,” she said.

Psaki said Russian President Vladimir Putin created the crisis by massing 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders and it is up to him and the Russians to decide whether to invade and then “suffer severe economic consequences.”

The U.S. has not concluded whether Putin plans to invade or whether the show of force is intended to squeeze security concessions without an actual conflict. Russia has brushed off calls to withdraw its troops by saying it has a right to deploy its forces wherever it likes on its own territory.

Blinken’s meetings follow inconclusive diplomatic talks between Moscow and the West in Europe last week that failed to resolve stark disagreements over Ukraine and other security matters.

Instead, those meetings appear to have increased fears of a Russian invasion, and the Biden administration has accused Russia of preparing a “false flag operation” to use as a pretext for intervention. Russia has angrily denied the charge.

From Kyiv, Blinken will travel to Berlin, where he will meet with his German, British and French counterparts to discuss a possible response to any Russian military action. In Geneva on Friday, Blinken will be testing Lavrov on Russia’s interest in a “diplomatic off-ramp” for the crisis, a senior State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Blinken’s “travel and consultations are part of the diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tension caused by Russia’s military build-up and continued aggression against Ukraine,” the State Department said in a statement.

Blinken will meet with Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Wednesday “to reinforce the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the State Department said.

“The trip follows extensive diplomacy with our European Allies and partners about a united approach to address the threat Russia poses to Ukraine and our joint efforts to encourage it to choose diplomacy and de-escalation in the interests of security and stability,” it said.

CIA Director William Burns visited Kyiv last Wednesday to consult with his Ukrainian counterparts and discuss current assessments of the risk to Ukraine, a U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss Burns’ schedule, which is classified. While there, he also discussed the current situation with Zelenskyy and efforts to de-escalate tensions.

Blinken spoke by phone Tuesday with Lavrov, discussing the diplomatic talks and meetings held last week. The State Department said Blinken “stressed the importance of continuing a diplomatic path to de-escalate tensions” surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation and “reiterated the unshakable U.S. commitment” to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On Monday, Lavrov, Russia’s top diplomat, rejected the U.S. allegations that his country was preparing a pretext to invade Ukraine. Speaking to reporters, he dismissed the U.S. claim as “total disinformation.”

Lavrov reaffirmed that Russia expects a written response this week from the U.S. and its allies to Moscow’s request for binding guarantees that NATO will not embrace Ukraine or any other ex-Soviet countries or station its forces and weapons there.

Blinken underscored to Lavrov on Tuesday that any discussion of European security “must include NATO Allies and European partners, including Ukraine,” the State Department said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov emphasized in the call with Blinken the key aspects of Russian draft documents envisaging “legally binding guarantees of Russia’s security in line with the principle of indivisibility of security approved by all countries in the Euro-Atlantic.” It said Lavrov stressed the importance for Washington to quickly deliver a written response to the Russian proposals.

Washington and its allies firmly rejected Moscow’s demands during last week’s Russia-U.S. negotiations in Geneva and a related NATO-Russia meeting in Brussels.

The White House said Friday that U.S. intelligence officials had concluded that Russia had already deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage there and blame them on Ukraine to create a pretext for possible invasion.

Ahead of Blinken’s visit to Kyiv, a delegation of U.S. senators was visiting Ukraine to emphasize congressional support for the country.

“Our bipartisan congressional delegation sends a clear message to the global community: the United States stands in unwavering support of our Ukrainian partners to defend their sovereignty and in the face of persistent Russian aggression,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, said in a statement.

Speaking Monday on a visit to Kyiv, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that “any further escalation would carry a high price for the Russian regime — economic, political and strategic,” and she emphasized the need to continue negotiations.

“We are prepared to have a serious dialogue with Russia, because diplomacy is the only way to defuse this highly dangerous situation at the moment,” she said.

Russia in 2014 seized the Crimean Peninsula after the ouster of Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly leader and also threw its weight behind a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine. More than 14,000 people have been killed in nearly eight years of fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces in the country’s industrial heartland called Donbas.

Putin has warned that Moscow will take unspecified “military-technical measures” if the West stonewalls its demands.

___

Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov contributed to this report from Moscow.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced visa restrictions on Thursday in a statement that condemned an ongoing crackdown on participants in demonstrations that began last July and called prison sentences handed down to those involved “harsh and unjust.”

The eight officials were not named, but Blinken said all of them are connected to the “detention, sentencing and imprisonment” of peaceful protesters. The U.S. says about 600 protesters across the communist island remain jailed after the July 11 protests despite appeals for their release.

“The United States took steps to enforce visa restrictions in response to Cuban government attempts to deny Cubans their freedom and rights through continued intimidation tactics, unjust imprisonment, and severe sentences,” Blinken said.

The travel bans are the latest actions against Cuba from the Biden administration, which has largely followed former President Donald Trump’s highly critical policies toward the island. In late November, Blinken announced travel bans on nine Cuban officials for similar actions against protesters.

“The United States continues to use all appropriate diplomatic and economic tools to push for the release of political prisoners and to support the Cuban people’s call for greater freedom and accountability,” Blinken said.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez criticized the travel ban. “The US government persists in the bad habit of trying to impose its will on other governments by means of unilateral coercive measures,” he said in a statement. Rodriguez added that Blinken’s announcement “in no way alters Cuba’s determination to defend its sovereign rights.”

In July, thousands of Cubans took to the street in cities across the island to protest shortages of goods and power blackouts, the largest demonstrations against the Communist administration in recent history. Some called for a change in government.

Cuban authorities have said that the United States was the real force behind the protests.

The Biden administration has spoken in support of the Cuban activists and praised the anti-government protests.

Soon after the July protests, the U.S. announced new sanctions on Cuba’s national revolutionary police and its top two officials.